Colorado Rockies: Will they look to lock up Arenado long term?

Currently, he is under team control through the end of the 2019 season. The Rockies and Arenado agreed to a two-year deal back in January. Arenado earned $11.75MM in 2017 and will earn $17.75MM in 2018. Arenado will be arbitration-eligible one last time after this deal is up, and he could become a free agent after the 2019 season. So, there is some time to figure out a new deal. However, it’s never too early to start talking numbers…or even if the Rockies are going to go long term with Arenado.

Before get into the will he/won’t he and will they/won’t they, we need to try to roughly estimate what kind of contract Nolan Arenado is going to pull. The main determining factors (without any context to the teams and their needs) here is fair market value and how the league perceives Arenado’s performance. Let’s start with a baseline number. Now, obviously, this is probably Scott Boras out here driving up the market for his players, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted this out a little over a week ago:

So, what does J.D. Martinez‘s free agency now, have to do with Nolan Arenado? According to Baseball-Reference.com, Nolan Arenado and J.D. Martinez have a similarity score of 923.6 out of 1000. Similarity score is just a methodology of comparing players, factoring in a number of offensive and defensive metrics. No player is more similar to Arenado than Martinez.

Whether you buy into this methodology or not, even a quick side by side comparison shows that they have very similar career numbers offensively. So, we know as a baseline starting point determined by market, Nolan Arenado would be worth the 7 Year, $210 million contract.

It doesn’t take a veteran of a MLB front office to tell you that Arenado provides a ton of value offensively and defensively. It’s an extremely difficult combination of talent to match at 26 years of age. In fact, he’s at a Hall of Fame pace offensively, being the first third baseman in history with at least 35 home runs and 130 RBIs in three straight seasons.

Now, his home and road splits are where the discounts will come into play. The closest I could possibly think of in this recent market to compare him to was Robinson Cano in terms of production, from offensive and defensive standpoints. However, Robinson Cano was 5 years older than Arenado when he signed his 10 year, $240 million contract.

So, with past production, talent, age and market value in mind, I think we can safely settle on a 10 year, $275 million contract…at the very least. There has been a lot of speculation that Arenado could command a $300 million contract. It is certainly not out of the realm of possibility to see a major market team offer up a contract of that size for Arenado’s services.

One has to believe the biggest question that needs to be answered in this discussion is pretty simple; Will the Rockies shell out the money? If I can whip up the rough estimate above, then it’s safe to assume that the Rockies have a pretty good idea of what Arenado is going to be worth, as well. While there has been no reports of contract talks as of yet, Rockies know that, despite Arenado dropping Scott Boras as an agents a few years back, there won’t be any home town discounts either. The reality is that the Rockies have some signed some very large contracts relative to the market of the time…but that $27.5million dollars (at a bare minimum) contract is a large pill for a middle market team to swallow.

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There are reasons to be optimistic on the Rockies potentially signing Arenado to long-term deal. First, he was top 10 Rookie of the Year finalist, three-time Top 10 MVP Finalist, three-time All-Star, three-time Silver Slugger, five time Gold Glover, and a Platinum Glove recipient. Nolan Arenado is a once in a lifetime talent. If the Rockies truly want to contend for a World Series title, they need to look no further than Nolan Arenado to start. He is a franchise player, with a seemingly good character, who would be the main anchor to a ball club with post-season aspirations.

Secondly, the Rockies are about to come into a little extra cash. Per Craig Edwards of Fangraphs, the local TV contract for the Rockies is expiring in 2020. With the way baseball viewership has been trending upward again, the Rockies will undoubtedly be negotiating a more lucrative payout for local television rights that could be used towards a large contract.

Now all of this is just assuming that Nolan Arenado wants to continue his playing career in the Mile High City. When courting young stars, a winning is as important as the willingness to write the big check. If the Rockies can show that they can put a contending team over the next couple seasons, that would only add to the value of staying in Colorado.

Next: Former Rockies on the 2018 Hall of Fame ballot

However, don’t be surprised when that pesky Dodgers team comes knocking, telling tales of playing baseball at home in Southern California…with a blank check in hand.