Colorado Rockies: Why first base should be the real free agent focus

To fully understand the financials, we take a look at Spotrac.com Rockies Payroll Calculator, here we’ll see in 2017 the Colorado Rockies paid:

• Active Roster: $115,494,571
• Dead Money: $40,945,991
• Buried Money: $2,152,000

Here is some insight into the terminology, Colorado paid out $115,494,571 to its current players on the “active” roster. This total includes the rosters base salary, signing bonus, and performance incentives.

The “dead money” is referenced to those players the organization has dealt away, bought out, or retired. In many cases, back-loaded signing bonuses are also included in the “dead money” term as well.

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In total, the Colorado Rockies paid $40,945,991 in dead money to players like Jordan Lyles (designated for assignment, signed with the Padres), Jason Motte (released, signed with the Braves), Jose Reyes (team buyout, signed with Mets in 2016), and Chad Qualls (released by Rockies), Stephen Cardullo (released by Rockies, signed to a minor league deal), and Dustin Garneau (designated for assignment, picked up off waivers by Oakland).

Additionally, dead money includes the signing bonuses of this year’s amateur draft picks.

Finally, the last piece in deciding an organization’s total payroll, the organization must include the players moving through the minor leagues and major league rosters. In total, Colorado had eight different players spending time back and forth between the major league roster and their minor league system. In total, these players accrued a base payroll hit of $2,152,000.

Now, that we understand what the team make-up look liked last year in terms of payroll, lets take a quick look into what is leaving.

According to a recent article in the Denver Post, published by Patrick Saunders, Dick Monfort has informed fans that 2018 would include a ‘modest increase’ in ticket prices. Monfort also goes onto say in that article, the ticket price increase would ‘Hopefully, this will allow us to sign and retain players who will get us over the top“.

From my perspective, the Rockies will be looking to build a long-term, more sustainable roster focusing its objective on winning now.

With the pending free agent losses of Jonathan Lucroy, Mark Reynolds, Carlos Gonzalez, Tyler Chatwood, Jake McGee, Pat Neshek, Greg Holland and the more than $36,000,000 in dead money coming off the books, the Colorado Rockies will be in great position to fill roster needs. With a 2017 payroll in excess of $145,000,000, the Colorado Rockies will be looking either match, or increase payroll for the 2018 season.

Colorado Rockies

Currently, there is only $67,000,000 allocated to the current roster. This gives Colorado Rockies more than $87,000,000 in flexible spending to bring in valuable pieces to fill five or six holes. That is a MUCH better position to be in than from a year ago.

The window to win is now, with core All-Stars such as DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, and Charlie Blackmon fielding their positions and with multi-position veterans such as Ian Desmond and Gerardo Parra, the Rockies will build around a stable of young arms led by Chad Bettis, Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson. With the natural growth and development of Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, and Antonio Senzatela, and continued development of prize pitching prospect Jeff Hoffman, the Rockies pitching rotation includes the best collection of talent the organization has ever had.

With LeMahieu and Blackmon entering their final years of player arbitration (and team control), both are expected to see significant pay raises. The Rockies will likely sit down and speak to Blackmon and his team about a long-term extension. Arenado enters the final year of a two-year contract he signed in the offseason of 2016, but still has one final year of arbitration eligibility afterward, keeping him under team control until after 2019. The Rockies brass has said they plan to initiate the conversation with his team as well about a long-term deal.

While the majority of fans and analysts believe Colorado needs to target a right fielder, catcher, and bullpen help, I want to look at a different position I believe is equally important to Colorado’s long-term success … first base

Last year, the Rockies inked former All-Star Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70 million deal to become the team’s permanent first baseman. As we all remember, Desmond went through some injuries in spring training, and was not on the Rockies Opening Day Roster.

Instead, Mark Reynolds, a player Colorado signed last offseason to a minor league deal, took over the position, and immediately went on a torrid hot streak in April that solidified his role as the franchise’s first baseman.

In all, Reynolds slashed .267/.352/.487, crushing 30 homeruns in a season where he drove in 97 runs and carried the offense for the first two months of the season.  My primary concern for Reynolds, as it always has been, was his 175 strikeouts and 69 walks.

Desmond, on the other hand, never really got into a rhythm and slashed career lows in home runs (six) and RBI (40) while maintaining a slash line of .274/.326/.375. He did however, create some positional flexibility in Colorado’ss roster. His ability to play first base, center field, shortstop and Left Field puts the Rockies in a unique position. Dubbed “Zobrist 2.0,” Desmond’s diamond versatility allows the Rockies to target a true middle of the order bat versus a position need.

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The bat I believe we should consider is a first base bat. The field of first basemen hitting the market is deep. The options are big-time power hitting run producers with reliable gloves and several years of good production left to offer. Many of these bats are postseason experienced, and I believe mixed with the talented youth of Colorado’s current roster, could offer great leadership to a young team with unfinished business.

In 2017, the Colorado Rockies received a -1.8 WAR from their first basemen. Reynolds was the best producer with a 0.8. This rating placed the position number at 26th among team in the entire league according to Baseball-Reference’s Team Performance By Position metrics.

The same site provides us more intel into Colorado’s first baseman holes and highlights, ranking Colorado’s first basemen 14th in batting average (.267), 14th in slugging (.487), 15th in OBP (.345), 9th in home runs (36), 4th in RBI (112), 12th in walks, and 4th in strikeouts (200).

Defensively, Colorado’s first basemen combined to produce -5 Runs Fielded, ranking them 23rd, and 7th worst defensively, according to Baseball-Reference.

When a team is preparing itself for postseason stability, defense, pitching, and timely hitting are everything. A strong defense can provide added comfort and relieve stress in a young rotation.  Improving Colorado’s team defense, while stabilizing the middle of the lineup with a patient, run-producing bat will improve the overall team performance in 2018.

I want to look at three players I believe could be huge pick-ups. Each player offers a unique skill set, and adds more upside long term and short term than the current options: In their particular order of interest, I present to you.

• Carlos Santana
• Logan Morrison
• Eric Hosmer

First, let us look at Carlos Santana (31) of the Cleveland Indians. He is a free agent, finishing a five-year, $ 32 million contract that was signed in the offseason of 2012. He has been a solid defensive contributor to the Indians, as well as a middle of the order bat. Below are his statistics from 2017. His plate discipline some of the best in all of the league among power hitters, shows a strikeout rate of 14.9% with a 13.9% walk rate.

When looking at the differences between Mark Reynolds and Carlos Santana, we compare the differences in plate discipline, batted balls in play, and defensive runs saved. Santana is clearly a far more superior talent, and he is three years younger than Reynolds.

Santana finished +15 Defensive Runs Saved better, struck out 81 fewer times, walked 19 more times, all with 74 more plate appearances than Reynolds. His WAR is 2.6 higher than Reynolds, WRC was 13 points higher, and his 21 postseason games given him more postseason experience.

Secondly, we take a look at Logan Morrison, 29, the first baseman of the Tampa Bay Rays. He too is a free agent, and in 2017 showed great promise as a full-time player with a breakout season.  With the 126 hits, 38 home runs, 85 RBI, 75 runs scored, 81 walks, and the 149 strikeouts in 512 at-bats, Morrison established new career highs in most every offensive category. Even the .246 batting average was his second-highest average for any season of his career.

Again, comparing Morrison to Reynolds, you see a player who walked more, hit for more power, showed more plate discipline, and played better overall defense. Five years younger than Reynolds, Morrison will be able to demand similar money, providing similar offensive production, for a longer sustained period of time.

Finally, we will look at Eric Hosmer, 27, the cream of the first baseman crop of free agents. Hosmer has been a staple of the Kansas City Royals World Series core. Jon Heyman reports the organization will make a serious run to keep him. Hosmer negotiations could push the price tag north of six years and $120 million.

With that said, lets take a look and see what type of value Hosmer could potentially add to the Rockies.

Now, two years removed from his multiple Gold Gloves, Hosmer is still a solid contributor at the corner. His -7 Defensive Runs Saved are still an improvement over the -10 Reynolds posted in 2017. His bat continues to be solid, hitting a .318/.385/.498 slash line in 2017, adding more power, plate discipline, and clutch hitting to his resume. At age 27, he is the youngest of the core group of 1B, but his decline is defense is a red factor I would be weary of moving forward.

Personal Verdict: After reviewing all three top candidates, I do believe the best, and most valuable of the three to the Colorado Rockies future is Carlos Santana. His plate discipline, postseason experience, defensive glove, and middle of the order bat are what the Rockies need the most.

According to ESPN, in 2017, Colorado finished 9th in Strikeouts (1,408 with 175 coming from Mark Reynolds), Cleveland, had the 2nd fewest (1,153, only 94 provided by Carlos Santana). The same site shows us Cleveland earned the 4th most walks (604, 94 by Santana) and Colorado was the 11th worst, finishing 19th (519).

The addition of a veteran middle of the order bat, with great plate discipline, a solid glove, and postseason leadership will not only provide short term value on offense and defense, but allow for Colorado to keep Ian Desmond in left field, Gerardo Parra in right field, and Charlie Blackmon in center field, where the Rockies speed would be able to eliminate balls in the gaps, preventing runs from scoring due to the lack of speed.

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This type of move will help Colorado keep pace with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, while the Giants and Padres continue their rebuilding efforts.