Colorado Rockies: How they stack up in the NL Wild Card race
With every game, the Colorado Rockies are inching closer to making their first appearance in the National League playoffs since 2009. It’s also appears it is going to be a white-knuckle race to the finish.
While the team has not put up the kind of record in the second half of the season that it did before the All-Star break, it seems to be in a great position to make October one to remember in Denver.
Heading into play on Sunday, the Rockies were given an 80 percent chance to make the postseason according to MLB.com. Four National League teams have a greater chance to make the postseason. Washington and Los Angeles were both at 100 percent while the Chicago Cubs were at 86 percent and the Arizona Diamondbacks were at 83 percent.
Now if all of those teams made the postseason, that is no problem for Rockies fans. After all, five National League teams will advance to play further in October and Colorado has a great chance to be in that mix. But what about the teams behind them?
As of Sunday morning, St. Louis had a 38 percent chance to make the postseason. Milwaukee came in at 8 percent and the rest of the National League fell behind from there. The Brewers entered Sunday 3.5 games behind the Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card spot while St. Louis was 4 games back. The Brewers pulled within 2.5 games with their 8-4 win over the Rockies on Sunday, their sixth win in their last seven games. St. Louis stayed four games behind thanks to a loss to the Pirates on Sunday Night Baseball.
Here is how the Wild Card standings look on Monday morning, August 21…
Colorado +1
Arizona —
Milwaukee -2.5
St. Louis -4.0
Note: Chicago leads Milwaukee by 2 games in the National League Central while St. Louis is 3.5 games back.
While the Rockies seem safe, it’s a good time to look at Arizona, Chicago, St. Louis and Milwaukee to compare their schedules and see which teams might have an advantage down the stretch.
Let’s start with the Rockies and how they might fare the rest of the season and go from there.
Rockies schedule (68-56 overall as of Monday morning)
August 22-24 at Kansas City
August 25-27 at Atlanta
August 28-30 vs. Detroit
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September 1-3 vs. Arizona
September 4-6 vs. San Francisco
September 7-10 at Los Angeles Dodgers
September 11-14 at Arizona
September 15-17 vs. San Diego
September 19-20 at San Francisco
September 21-24 at San Diego
September 25-27 vs. Miami
September 29-October 1 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
What jumps out: September is filled with competition against the National League West (except for a three-game series against the Marlins in the final week of the regular season). That includes six games against the Dodgers and seven games against Arizona.
In that stretch, Colorado plays nine consecutive games against the two lowest teams in the division (San Diego and San Francisco). That’s the good news. The bad news? Four of those games are at Petco Park where the Rockies have historically struggled.
Biggest series: All eyes will be on Coors Field in the final series of the regular season when the Dodgers come to town for three games. Will L.A. come in looking to rest its players for a postseason run or will the Dodgers do everything they can to make sure they’re not coming back to Coors Field for the playoffs? This series could not only determine if the Rockies host the Wild Card game, but also if they make the postseason.
Get ready for some high drama to end the regular season.
Diamondbacks schedule (67-57 overall as of Monday morning)
August 21-24 at New York Mets
August 25-27 vs. San Francisco
Colorado Rockies
August 29-31 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
September 1-3 at Colorado
September 4-6 at Los Angeles Dodgers
September 8-10 vs. San Diego
September 11-14 vs. Colorado
September 15-17 at San Francisco
September 18-20 at San Diego
September 22-24 vs. Miami
September 25-27 vs. San Francisco
September 29-October 1 at Kansas City
What jumps out: Arizona has three series left with San Francisco this season and two with San Diego. Their only interleague series left comes in an interesting matchup to close the regular season at Kansas City. The Royals could well be fighting for their playoff lives during that series as well.
From August 25-September 20, Arizona will see no team other than those in the National League West. When the Diamondbacks do meet someone from outside the division, it will be Miami in the desert in the next-to-last weekend of the regular season. The Marlins could play a big role in the postseason shakeup as they play Arizona and then head to Colorado next. Miami also has a three-game in south Florida against the Brewers in mid-September.
Who has the easier schedule between the Rockies and Diamondbacks? It’s hard to say as they are pretty even and filled with division foes for both teams. Don’t forget though, the odds seem to be slightly in Arizona’s favor according to MLB.com and FanGraphs.
Cubs schedule (66-57 overall and leading the NL Central as of Monday morning)
August 22-24 at Cincinnati
August 25-27 at Philadelphia
August 28-30 vs. Pittsburgh
August 31-September 3 vs. Atlanta
September 4-7 at Pittsburgh
September 8-10 vs. Milwaukee
September 12-14 vs. New York Mets
September 15-17 vs. St. Louis
September 19-20 at Tampa Bay
September 21-24 at Milwaukee
September 25-28 at St. Louis
September 29-October 1 vs. Cincinnati
What jumps out: After Monday, the Cubs only have two off days left down the stretch. That’s one less than the Rockies. It may not seem like much, but that one day can make a huge difference when it comes to getting some relief for your bullpen.
From September 21-28, the Cubs face off against the two teams who are chasing them in the standings (the Brewers and Cardinals) and both of those series are on the road. Whatever damage is inflicted upon the Cubs during those series, however, could be softened by Chicago’s three-game series at Wrigley against the Reds to end the season. Somehow, the Cubs always seem to get the best of the Reds so having Cincinnati in town as the final series of the season could be just what the doctor ordered for the defending World Champions.
The race for the National League Central could well come down to those seven games between September 21-28.
Cardinals schedule (63-61 overall as of Monday morning)
August 22-24 vs. San Diego
August 25-27 vs. Tampa Bay
August 29-30 at Milwaukee
August 31-September 3 at San Francisco
September 4-7 at San Diego
September 8-10 vs. Pittsburgh
September 12-14 vs. Cincinnati
September 15-17 at Chicago Cubs
September 19-21 at Cincinnati
September 22-24 at Pittsburgh
September 25-28 vs. Chicago Cubs
September 29-October 1 vs. Milwaukee
What jumps out: The Cardinals have two series left with the Cubs and two series left with the Brewers the rest of the season. St. Louis also finishes the season with an all National League Central slate from September 8 through the rest of the year. A road trip from September 15-24 through three NL Central cities will be over just before the Cardinals end with what could be a huge back-to-back set of series at home against the teams who are competing with them for the NL Central crown … and potential Wild Card slot.
The Cardinals also have a West Coast swing still, with stops in San Francisco and San Diego. Who knows … the two lowest teams in the National League West could help the Rockies and/or Diamondbacks in a big way if they can take out the Redbirds.
Brewers schedule (65-60 overall as of Monday morning)
August 21-23 at San Francisco
August 25-27 at Los Angeles Dodgers
August 29-30 vs. St. Louis
August 31-September 3 vs. Washington
September 4-6 at Cincinnati
September 8-10 at Chicago Cubs
September 11-13 vs. Pittsburgh
September 15-17 at Miami
September 18-20 at Pittsburgh
September 21-24 vs. Chicago Cubs
September 26-28 vs. Cincinnati
September 29-October 1 at St. Louis
What jumps out: The Brewers aren’t going anywhere any time soon it seems, especially after taking two of three games from the Rockies at Coors Field over the weekend. However, Milwaukee’s finishing schedule is anything but easy.
The Brewers are the only team of the bunch to face the current three National League division leaders down the stretch (at the Dodgers, home against Washington and a home-and-home with the Cubs). They also end the season with three games at St. Louis, a team they could potentially be battling for not only a Wild Card spot but potentially the National League Central title as well.
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Milwaukee may have the lowest postseason odds of any of the teams we have highlighted in this article. However, as they showed at 20th and Blake over the weekend, the Brewers can be a dangerous team. And, all it takes is for a team playing really good baseball as October dawns to throw some wrenches in everyone’s best guesses and plans.