Colorado Rockies: Is Nolan Arenado the best player in all of baseball?

Widely regarded as the best player in Major League Baseball, Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim is the only person who could rival Arenado in the crown of best player in baseball. In the past five seasons, Trout has won two American League Most Valuable Player Awards and in the other three years, he came in second (to Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers in 2012 and 2013 and Josh Donaldson of the Toronto Blue Jays in 2015, respectively). However, are Arenado and Trout even comparable to each other in the past three seasons.

In 2015, Trout played in 159 games and offensively, and he was 27th in the AL in at-bats (575), 3rd in runs (104), tied for 13th in hits (172), tied for 28th in doubles (32), tied for 3rd in home runs (41), 14th in RBIs (90), third in walks (92), ninth in batting average (.299), second in on-base percentage (.402), and led the league in slugging percentage (.590).

In 2015, Arenado played in 157 games and offensively, he was in the top ten National League qualifiers in many statistics. He had 616 at bats (second), 97 runs (seventh), 177 hits (fifth), 43 doubles (tied for second), 42 home runs (tied for the NL lead), 130 RBIs (led the league with 20 RBIs more than the next qualifer, Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt), and a .575 slugging percentage (2nd).

Defensively, Trout had five Defensive Runs Saved and fourth of all American League outfielders with a 2.79 range factor. In Defensive Wins Above Replacement, Trout did not rank in the top 10 in the American League.

Defensively in 2015, Arenado led qualifying third basemen with a 3.12 range factor (which is (Putouts+Assists)/Innings Played). He also had 18 Defensive Runs Saved (which lead the league at third basemen) and led NL third basemen with a 2.2 Defensive Wins Above Replacement (which was sixth, overall, in the major leagues). He also led the third basemen with 42 double plays turned.

Overall, Arenado had a WAR of 5.8 and he was an All-Star, ranked eighth in the MVP voting, won the Gold Glove for NL third basemen, the Silver Slugger Award for his position, and he won the 2015 Wilson Defensive Player of the Year.

Trout was an All-Star, Silver Slugger Award winner for outfielders (three are chosen for the three outfield spots), and he came in second in the AL MVP voting. He had a WAR of 9.4.

Since Trout and Arenado are close offensively with some numbers leaning to Trout (like batting average and on-base percentage) and some leaning to Arenado (like home runs, RBIs, and hits), they are about even offensively by the numbers. However, since Arenado plays half of his games in Coors Field, which is much more of a hitter’s park than Angel Stadium, you have to look at their OPS+.  OPS+ (which adjusts for ballparks played in) is very different between the two. Trout’s was 176 (which 100 is league average). Arenado’s was 124. Therefore, the reasoning why their WAR’s are so far a part, offensive is much easier to come by when you play half of a season at Coors Field. Arenado, though, is obviously, the better defender.

Now, let’s compare their 2016 seasons by their offensive numbers.

In 2016, Trout played in 159 games and he led the AL in runs (123), fifth in hits (173), tied for sixth in doubles (32), tied for fifth in home runs (29), fourth in RBIs (100), first in walks (116), tied for second in stolen bases (30), second in batting average (.315), first in on-base percentage (.441, which was 68 points higher than the next qualifier, J.D. Martinez), and first in slugging percentage (.550).

Arenado led the NL in 160 games played and he was second in runs (116), 7th in hits (182), tied for 16th in double (35), tied for the league lead in home runs (41), a league leading 133 RBIs (Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs was second with 109), tied for 18th in walks (68), 17th in average (.294), 20th in on-base percentage (.362), and second in slugging percentage (.570).

Now, let’s look at Arenado and Trout defensively in 2016 by their defensive and WAR stats as well as their accolades.

Defensively, Trout was third among qualifying American League outfielders with a range factor of 2.48. He had a Defensive Wins Above Replacement of 0.9, which was not in the league’s top 10 and he had six Defensive Runs Saved.

However, for Arenado, he had a 2.98 range factor (which led qualifying third basemen) and a Defensive WAR of 2.3. He also had 20 Defensive Runs Saved.

Trout was an All-Star, he won the MVP award, and he was a Silver Slugger Award winner. Arenado was an All-Star, he came in 5th in the NL MVP voting, and he won a Silver Slugger Award, he won a Gold Glove, and he won the 2016 Wilson Defensive Player of the Year award

Trout had a WAR 10.5 and Arenado’s was only 6.6.

The numbers are, once again, close in the offensive numbers but Coors Field helps Arenado’s numbers so Trout is the better offensive player. However, if you just consider the production that they have and don’t consider the park played in, you have much more of a dilemma.

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Arenado’s numbers are much better than Trout’s if you look at the overall numbers since Trout was out for 40 games with a thumb injury. Arenado has played in 97 games and he is fifth in runs (67), third in hits (122), second in doubles (32), tied for fifth in triple (5), tied for 11th in home runs (22), first in RBIs (86), ninth in batting average (.314), tied for 26th in on-base percentage (.361), and 4th in slugging percentage (.590).

Arenado is on pace for 204 hits, 54 doubles, nine triples, 37 HRs, and 144 RBIs.

Defensively, Arenado already has 17 Defensive Runs Saved, a 1.9 Defensive WAR, a 4.6 overall WAR, and he leads qualifying third basemen in the NL in range factor at 2.73.

Trout was on pace for, by far, the best season he’s ever had in the season’s first two months. If he kept his play up, he would end with 190 hits, 49 doubles, 56 home runs (that’s not a typo), 125 RBIs, 125 walks, a .337 average, a .461 on-base percentage, and a .742 slugging percentage. However, with missing six weeks of games, he obviously won’t keep pace with that or Arenado.

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Final Thoughts

If you just strictly look at their numbers, you can easily make a case for Nolan Arenado to be the best player in baseball especially if you consider his defense. However, if you consider that Arenado plays half of his games at Coors Field and his road splits are nowhere close to being as good as they are at home, you come up with a predicament. Depending on which way you look at things depends on what conclusion you come to. However, even though he may or may not be the best position player in all of baseball, you can’t argue that Arenado is one of, if not, the best position player in the National League.