Rockies trade rumors: starting pitching edition

Four out of the six Rockies’ main starters are rookies and in their recent skid of losing 13 of 18 entering the All-Star break, they faltered.

As promised in this article that was published yesterday, we will be discussing the possible starting pitchers that the Rockies could acquire before the non-waiver trade deadline that is a little less than three weeks down the line.

Personally, I believe that the Rockies will trade for two starting pitchers before the deadline because the amount of rookies they have in their starting rotation currently. Chad Bettis, as long as everything goes smoothly, will also soon be returning from his rehab assignment (as our own Kevin Henry discussed a few days ago in this article).

The reason why I believe that two starters will be acquired is that the rookies will be sent down to the minor leagues (at one point or another) to hold back their MLB service time (you can learn more about service time from this article from 2015). They also might spend some time in the bullpen to lessen the workload of their arms. Both of these have already happened to Antonio Senzatela.

The starters will be split into two categories: top-flight starters and the middle- to back-end starters.

Also, I am not considering pitchers who have not done, at least, marginally well in Coors Field. They include, Edinson Volquez of the Marlins (I discussed him in this article), Tom Koehler of Miami, Clayton Richard of the Padres, Jaime Garcia of the Braves, Jeff Samardzija of the Giants, Ervin Santana of the Twins, J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays, Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano of the Blue Jays, and Scott Feldman of the Reds. Each of them have started a game in Coors Field and have struggled mightily. For example, Liriano made one start in Coors Field and he only went 2 1/3 innings and gave up 10 runs.

So here’s the list…

Jeremy Hellickson of the Philadelphia Phillies. You might remember him from his season spent with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2015.

In 2017, with the Phillies, he has a 5-5 record with a 4.49 ERA in 18 starts and a 95 ERA+. Nothing to write home about this season but in 2016, he pitched well. He went 12-10 with a 3.71 ERA in 32 starts and 189 innings pitched with an ERA+ of 113.

He has never pitched at Coors Field before but in two of the most hitter friendly parks in the National League, he has faired well. In his home park of Citizens Bank Park, he’s 9-6 with a 3.64 ERA. His opponent’s have hit .238 off him and have a .291 on-base percentage against him in 25 career starts there. At Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, home of the Reds, he has done even better (albeit, in much less of a sample size). In two starts there, he’s 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA in 11 innings. His opponent’s have a batting average of .231 and an on-base percentage of .262 in the stadium.

Hellickson is only signed through the rest of the season and is owed about $8 million for the rest of 2017. It wouldn’t take the Rockies much to take him off the Phillies hands for that reason. Plus, they aren’t going anywhere any time soon as they are 29-58 in the first half, a full 10.5 games behind all the other teams in the NL East.

Trevor Cahill of the San Diego Padres is 3-3 in nine starts and he has an ERA of 3.38. He has only made nine starts due to being on the disabled list for seven weeks with a shoulder injury.

Pitching in very pitcher friendly Petco Park in San Diego and pitching in Coors Field in Denver, as we all know, are two very different animals, though. However, he has actually faired fairly well in his rather extensive Coors Field career.

In 10 appearances at Coors (seven of which have been starts), he is 3-4 but he has an ERA of 4.15. His opponent’s average is a bit higher than you’d like as it is .283.

Cahill could also be used out of the bullpen and be effective as a reliever as he was with the World Champion Chicago Cubs last season and he had a 2.74 ERA in 50 appearances (with only one start) and 65 2/3 innings pitched.

He also has postseason experience as he pitched in the playoffs for the Cubs in 2015 (not last season, though) and he only allowed two runs in 5 1/3 innings pitched for an ERA of 3.38.

He’s only owed about $800,000 for the rest of the season and he’s a free agent at season’s end so he would be a cheap rental for the Rockies to acquire for flexibility in the rotation and, potentially, the bullpen.

Now, we go to the top-flight, big name starters.

Gerrit Cole of the Pittsburgh Pirates is one of the best young pitchers in the National League but he has struggled a bit in 2017. He has a 7-7 record with a 4.43 ERA in 18 starts. He has fared much better in the past four seasons as he has a 47-30 record with a 3.23 ERA. His best season was in 2015 as he went 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA in 32 starts. He was an All-Star, 4th in the NL Cy Young Award voting, and 16th in NL MVP voting.

He has only made one start in Coors Field but he went six innings and gave up eight hits, four runs (only two of which were earned so his ERA is an even 3.00) and he notched the win.

He also has postseason experience as in three postseason starts, he’s pitched 16 innings and allowed seven runs, which is an ERA of 3.94.

He’s owed about $1.8 million for the rest of 2017 and he’s arbitration eligible through the 2019 season as after the 2019 season is when he would become a free agent.

Justin Verlander is, by far, the biggest name on this list. He’s been discussed before as a possible trade candidate on our site in this article from last week.

He has struggled in 2017 as he is 5-6 with a 4.73 ERA in 18 starts in 104 2/3 innings pitched. However, in 2016, he was 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA in 34 starts and 224 2/3 innings pitched. He led the league with 254 strikeouts and led the league in WHIP (Walks+Hits divided by Innings Pitched) at 1.001 (under 1.3 for a starter is good). He also only came five points short of winning the AL Cy Young Award and received 14 of the 30 first place votes.

In 2011, he won the AL MVP and AL Cy Young Award, the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2006, and he’s been in the top 10 in Cy Young Award voting six times.

He only has one start in Coors Field in his career but it was very good. He pitched a complete game and only allowed four hits and one run. The Rockies only hit .133 off him and only had a .161 on-base percentage.

He has extensive playoff experience as he pitched in the playoffs in 2006 and 2011-14. In 16 starts, he’s 7-5 with a 3.39 and pitched 98 1/3 innings pitched.

He’s owed $28 million for the next two years and he has an vesting option for 2020 that is $22 million if he is in the top 5 in the Cy Young Award voting.

It would take a lot to acquire him but if the Rockies are willing to give a lot of prospects up (and they have them as MLB.com ranked their farm system as #8 in MLB in this article from March), they could pull it off.

Writers/Editor’s Note: In the initial publication of this article, I forgot to mention that Verlander has 10 and 5 rights, which is when a player has 10 years service time and five years with the same team. This means that he has full-no trade protection and therefore, must approve any trade that he is involved in.

We go to the Windy City for the next starter.

Jose Quintana has been another pitcher that we, here at Rox Pile, have discussed before (particularly, in this article in which we discussed a few starters. In the article, one starter mentioned was Lance Lynn of the Cardinals but he is not considered now because they have clawed back to being a dark horse in the NL Central).

He has struggled in 2017 as he is 4-8 with a 4.49 ERA but in his past seven starts (all of his starts in June and July), his ERA is 2.70 and batters are hitting .210 off him in that span. His career high in ERA is 3.76 in his rookie year, 2012 so obviously, his potential is much better than his number in his first eleven starts.

Quintana has had two career starts in Coors Field and he’s 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in 12 1/3 innings. His most recent start at Coors was his final before the All-Star break as it was last Saturday. He went 5 1/3 innings and allowed five hits and allowed three runs and struck out ten.

He’s under control through next season but he has two team options for 2019 and 2020. With both options, the Rockies would have him for the next three seasons with a little over 30 million owed to him so they would have starting pitching help for years to come.

UPDATE: Quintana has since been traded to the Chicago Cubs, according to MLBTradeRumors.com in this article.

Now, we head deep in the heart of Texas for the next starter.

Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers is another option that the Rockies have. He has pitched well in 2017 as he has a 6-8 record. That’s not great but his ERA of 3.49 in 19 starts and 118 2/3 innings pitched is very good. His career ERA is 3.39 in 119 career starts.

He’s also been an All-Star for four of the five seasons in which he has pitched (he was out for the whole 2015 season and part of the 2016 with Tommy John surgery, the only years that he did not make the All-Star team). In 2013, he was 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting

He has not made an appearance in Coors Field or even faced the Rockies before (at least, outside of spring training).

He is owed about $5 million for the rest of 2017 and he’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

Our final starter currently in Oakland.

Sonny Gray is another option for the Rockies and he’s currently with the Oakland Athletics.

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In 2017, he is 4-4 with an ERA of 4.00 in 13 starts. In 2016, he was 5-11 with a 5.69 ERA in 22 starts. While that might not scream “top-flight pitcher,” but he’s in the right category.

In 2014 and 2015 (his first two full MLB seasons) combined, he was 28-17 with a 2.91 ERA in 64 starts and he was an All-Star in 2015.

He also has postseason experience as in two starts in the 2013 American League Division Series, he went 13 innings and only allowed three runs (for an ERA of 2.08).

Since he has not pitched as well in the past two seasons (partially due to injuries since the beginning of the 2016 season, he has spent time on the disabled list for a strained right trapezius, strained right forearm, and strained right shoulder), the Rockies might be able to snatch Gray up as a buy-low candidate. He is a risk (as the injuries show) but he can be very-high reward.

Final Thoughts

Of these starters, I believe that one of the lower ranked starters (Hellickson and Cahill) will become a Rockie in the near future. Cahill, even though his Coors Field numbers haven’t been fabulous, could be particularly interesting because he has proved that he can be effective in the rotation and the bullpen so the Rockies could potentially use him in both roles. Hellickson would also be interesting to see as he provide some veteran leadership and he’s been on postseason teams before with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Of the top flight pitchers, I believe that Quintana will be the most likely to become a Rockie. He’s a young, controllable lefty who has pitched very well in seasons past. Since he has struggled a bit this season, the asking price, while still high, might have come down a little bit. In addition, the Rockies saw him pitch on Saturday in Coors and they had to be impressed with him since he struck out 10 in 5 1/3 innings.

Next: Each Month’s Key Series for the 2nd Half for the Rox

Obviously, we don’t know exactly what the Rockies will do (or could be doing right now) before the deadline but I do know that they will try to acquire at least one starter before the deadline. Whether it comes to fruition or not, though, remains to be seen.