Miami Marlins focusing on the Rockies’ farm system for a trade

After their loss to the St. Louis Cardinals today, the Miami Marlins have a record of 38-46 and are in fourth place in the National League East.

On Monday and Tuesday, the Miami Marlins are going to be hosting the Home Run Derby and the 2017 All-Star Game. However, after the festivities are completed on Tuesday, the Miami Marlins will be having a gloomy rest of the season because three things. First off, They have not been playing well (as their win-loss record shows). Secondly, the team will most likely be going through an ownership change as the owner of the Marlins, Jeffrey Loria, is looking to sell the team for more than a billion dollars (and some of the potential buyers are very interesting (e.g. Derek Jeter)). Lastly, they will be sellers at the trade deadline.

According to this article by Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, they have been extensively talking to the Rockies about working together for a trade. As Spencer says, the Rockies have one of the top-10 farm systems in baseball. The Marlins have plenty of pieces that they will be interested in and they also have some insider knowledge of the organization through their bench coach, Mike Redmond, who was the manager of the Marlins from the 2013 season through part-way through the 2015. So who are some of the people on the Marlins that the Rockies may be interested in?

It is no secret that the Rockies are looking for bullpen help and we’ve chronicled the rumors about it multiple times in the past week through trade rumor talks or the struggles of reliever Adam Ottavino. Someone who could help the Rockies is the Marlins closer AJ Ramos.

Ramos, in 2017, has a 2-3 record with a 3.16 ERA in 32 games and he has 15 saves (out of 16 opportunities). His walk numbers are a bit high as he has allowed 4.6 per nine innings but he’s striking out a little bit more than 11 per nine innings. Also, he’s been very consistent this is his highest ERA in a full season in his career (albeit, by 0.01). In the past three seasons, his ERA was not higher than 2.81.

In addition, he has pitched well in Coors Field in six career games (and six career innings) there. He has not allowed a run at Coors and has three saves as well. Also, his opponent’s slash line in Coors is .150/.190/.200 so he has proved, albeit in limited time at Coors, that he can pitch effectively in the extreme hitter’s park. He’s also still arbitration eligible (and under team control) through next season so he would be around a bit longer.

Given that he’s pitched well this season, in the past, and at Coors Field as well as an affordable contract through next season, Ramos will definitely be a target of the Rockies.

Marcell Ozuna is one of the best outfielders in the National League and it shows as he’s played well enough to earn a starting spot for in the outfield the NL All-Star team. He has 23 HRs, 67 RBIs, a .319/.375/.577 slash line, and a 150 OPS+.

In his two other full season of 2014 and 2016 (in 2015, he was injured and only played in 123 games), he averaged 23 HRs and 81 RBIs, a .268/.319/.454, and a 112 OPS+.

In addition, in 10 games at Coors Field, he has had three homers, four RBIs, and a slash line of .333/.372/.462. He’s also hit in the clean-up spot for the Marlins in 2017 and that the four hole has been an area of disappointment for the Rockies this season. Their four hole hitters have a .236/.335/.350 slash line (which is 26th, 18th, and 30th (dead last) in all of baseball). They also only have eight homers from the spot (29th in baseball). 38 RBIs (28th in baseball) and 77 hits, which is 25th in baseball.

He is under team control through the 2019 season because he’s arbitration eligible for the next two seasons so his pay is, partially, up to the team.

With all of this considered, even though it would take a lot to acquire Ozuna, the Rockies do have the resources to pull it off.

Christian Yelich is yet another outfielder that the Rockies could be interested in acquiring. He’s had a bit of a downward offensive turnout in 2017 as in 80 games, he’s had 83 hits, eight homers, 41 RBIs, a .271/.352/.392 slash line, and a 101 OPS+. His career year was 2016 and in 155 games, he had 172 hits, 21 HRs, 98 RBIs, a .298/.376/.483, and a 133 OPS+.

In the 12 games that’s he’s played at Coors Field, he four doubles, six RBIs, and a .320/.407/.400 slash line, and a BABIP of .364.

For Yelich, since he plays center field, he would either play center field and the Rockies would have to move Charlie Blackmon to left field and Ian Desmond to the bench, move Blackmon to right field (and move Carlos Gonzalez to left field and Ian Desmond to the bench), or move Yelich to left. By examining their defensive metrics, Yelich has struggled defensively in 2017 as, according to Fangraphs.com, his UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) is -1 and his DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) is -3 but he won a Gold Glove in 2014 with 11 DRS. Blackmon, also according to Fangraphs, has a combined -23.3 UZR in center field since 2015 and it’s already -4.9 in 2017. However, in left field and right field it is roughly 0 (or league average). Blackmon’s DRS is -7 already in 2017.

He is also under team control through the 2021 as well as a team option for 2022. In 2018, he’s supposed to make $7 million, $9.75 million in 2019, $12.5 million in 2020, and $14 million in 2021. The team option for 2022 is for $15 million.

Given his potential and team friendly contract, Yelich will also be on the radar for the Rockies. However, since he is under contract for the long term and he’s a cornerstone player for the Marlins, he would be, by the far, the hardest to acquire because the Marlins will be asking for the whole farm system for him.

Of all of these possible acquisitions, if I had to power rank each of the players in order of who has the most chance of being acquired by the Rockies to the least, number one would be AJ Ramos. Given the Rockies’ bullpen struggles, the team controllability of the player, and his consistent track record of pitching well (both out of a set up role and in the closer’s role).

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Secondly, I would go with Marcell Ozuna. He would provide the Rockies with help in left field, help in the cleanup spot, lengthen and strengthen their bench (with Ian Desmond moving to it), and also have a bit of controllability. The only issue is that, since he’s having a career year, the Marlins will be asking a lot in return for him.

Next, I would go with Christian Yelich. I think that he would provide a tremendous help to the Rockies’ outfielder for the long term but since he’s got a team-friendly contract and tremendous potential, the Marlins will be asking for virtually the whole Rockies farm system in return. If they were to acquire Yelich before the trade deadline, I believe that a three team trade might be best for this because the Rockies wouldn’t necessarily have to give all of their prospects up.

Next: Rockies' shortstop options

Edinson Volquez would come in last in my power rankings. Considering that he’s owed $11 million in 2018, he hasn’t pitched well consistently since 2015, and his woes at Coors Field, the only way I believe that the Rockies would acquire him is to flip him to another team for a different player or different players. The Rockies do need veteran starting pitching but Volquez is the not the answer to the Rockies’ needs.