Colorado Rockies: 2017 Fantasy Projections
Opening Day is around the corner. That likely means your fantasy baseball draft is too. RoxPile is here to help. Here is everything you need to know about how some of the Rockies’ finest can carry you to a championship.
If you’re anything like me, the closing days of Spring Training means your fantasy draft is rushing upon you like a 20-foot tidal wave and your only defense is a few sandbags. No need to fear, we have you covered. Well, covered enough to know how your favorites Rockies can help you achieve bragging rights anyway.
Projected Lineup:
In this article, we explored what the Rockies’ Opening Day batting order could look like. In the end, the major benefit of our projection is that we have accounted for Spring injuries. That being said, when April 3rd hits, the Rockies should debut with a line-up similar to this:
Charlie Blackmon CF DJ LeMahieu 2B Nolan Arenado 3B Carlos Gonzalez RF Mark Reynolds 1B Trevor Story SS Gerardo Parra LF Tony Wolters C Pitcher
You’ll undoubtedly notice that the lineup is missing a few important pieces. Namely, the Rockies will be missing All-Star Ian Desmond at first, and young bloods David Dahl and Tom Murphy. With their recovery in mind, here is the what the batting order would resemble at full strength:
Charlie Blackmon CF DJ LeMahieu 2B Nolan Arenado 3B Carlos Gonzalez RF Trevor Story SS Ian Desmond 1B David Dahl LF Tony Wolters/Tom Murphy C Pitcher
The Rockies will feature a top-five offensive unit in 2017. Surprise, surprise I know. The implications mean that you can find fantasy value in almost any Colorado position player. Especially, if said player is making their start at the Coors Field. The only real question mark in value rests in the Rockies eight spot in the order and the two places holders named Reynolds and Parra.
At present Tony Wolters will bat eighth and start at catcher for the foreseeable future. In 2016, Wolters slashed a .259/.327/.395 line with three homers, 30 RBI, and four stolen bases. With that offensive output, Wolters ranked 24th among catchers in standard mixed leagues. Clearly, you can find better value in other places.
Depending on the stats you’re looking for, any other starting Rockie is a potential fit. Need average and OPS? LeMathieu won a batting title last year with a .348 AVG and .911 OPS. Need power? Trevor Story launched 27 bombs in three-fourths of a season. And of course, Arenado, Cargo, and Blackmon provide coverage for all the fantasy offensive categories. In following slides, we’ll break down where you can find further value.
For the first time, possibly ever, a Rockies pitcher could help your fantasy pitching staff. Jon Gray sticks out as the obvious choice here. Currently, Yahoo has Gray ranked 202nd overall and owned in 77 percent of leagues. As a late round pick, Gray can provide good projected value for wins (12), quality starts (18) and Ks (187).
Projected Rotation:
- Jon Gray
- Tyler Chatwood
- Tyler Anderson
- Kyle Freeland
- Antonio Senzatela
Tyler Anderson provides the second most projected value on the Rockies staff. At Present, Anderson in owned in 27 percent of Yahoo leagues and is projected for 11 wins and 16 quality starts. This season marks the first year of fantasy that not only one, but possibly multiple starting Rockies pitchers being fantasy relevant.
Tyler Chatwood is a sleeper candidate, as he did get owners 12 wins last year and is owned in eight percent of leagues, but keep in mind his home ERA was atrocious. For fantasy purposes, no other starters can provide your team much value.
Projected Closer: Greg Holland
On a different note, everybody needs saves in fantasy. Historically the closer role was the only really value any Colorado pitcher could provide. Currently, the closer situation is unclear to say the least. As you can recall, the Rockies signed former All-Star closer Greg Holland during free agency. The move has some risk as Holland didn’t play at all in 2016 due to Tommy John surgery.
The Rockies most recently dominant reliever, Adam Ottavino, is also coming back from Tommy John although he was able to catch the tail end of 2016. Also, the Rockies tried to go with Jake McGee to start 2016, but inconsistency and lower extremity injuries led to a disappointing season.
To start 2017, we like Holland to get the first crack at save opportunities. Ottavino would be plan 1B, with McGee being the next man up. Hopefully it never gets that far. Our advice is to get Holland late in drafts as he can address your reliever needs.
Fantasy MVP: Nolan Arenado
No-brainer. Nolan Arenado is the Rockies best offensive player. This translates to being the most valuable fantasy player on Colorado’s roster. In 2016, Nolan ranked as the fifth overall fantasy player in Yahoo leagues. With 116 runs, 41 homers, 133 RBI, and .932 OPS, Arenado was a fantasy beast by all accounts. You better have a 1-4 overall draft pick to get his services for 2017.
If you’re too late, Charlie Blackmon established himself as an elite fantasy guy last season. Surprisingly Blackmon provided all around the board for offensive categories. In that same vain, Carlos Gonzalez was once an elite fantasy player and projects to improve upon his stats from last season. In sum, grab Nolan if you have a top pick, grab Charlie late in round one, or early in round two. If you miss the boat on both those guys, you can get CarGo in round three or four.
Breakout Player: David Dahl
After Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story burst onto the fantasy scene in 2016, who is someone that you can grab late and reap the benefits all season long? Well, for 2017 that guy is going to be David Dahl. Currently Dahl is on the disabled list, and will likely miss the first month of the season.
While the injury is a set back, that just means you can potentially grab David even later in the draft. Dahl is a five-tool guy that provide your team with value all over the board. Grab him in the middle to late rounds and stash for later. Remember, its a marathon and not a sprint.
Comeback Player: DJ LeMahieu
Wait, what? Yes, we are picking a guy who won the NL Batting Title as our fantasy comeback player for 2017. Here is why; DJ finished the 2016 campaign as the 32nd best fantasy player according to Yahoo, but this preseason they dropped DJ’s rank more than 50 spots to 83rd.
That’s crazy, LeMahieu is a professional hitter that is going to get you runs, average, and OPS. Not to mention, LeMahieu had double digits in home runs and stolen bases last year. For whatever reason fantasy experts think he can’t reproduce those numbers, but don’t buy into it. Consider LeMahieu a steal in the early-middle rounds.
Sleeper Pick: Tom Murphy
Like Dahl, Murphy’s 2017 is starting with a month long stint on the DL. Not withstanding, Murphy still won’t be the every day catcher for Colorado once he returns; but, there is no reason to fret. When he’s back, Murphy and Tony Wolters will presumably share catching duties. At the end of the day, Murphy is the much more superior hitter than the defensively capable Wolters.
For this reason, Murphy will play himself into more and more at-bats as the season progresses. Plus, Murphy will likely be the club’s first one off the bench late in games when trailing. As of today, you can get Murphy off of waivers following the draft, and stash him for later if your insecure about your starting catcher. Our advice is to start him over your everyday catcher on days when he plays at Coors Field.
Prospect To Watch: Raimel Tapia
Although recently reassigned to Triple-A, Raimel Tapia is the next man up fantasy wise. The Rockies 23-year-old is a professional hitter similar to DJ LeMahieu. Tapia doesn’t provide much projected value power wise, but he has speed and will hit for average. This combination suggests that Tapia will hit in the top of the order when he is established, meaning a lot of runs. Currently Tapia sits fifth on the Rockies outfield depth chart, but if the club makes a trade or the injury bug hits the outfield, look for Tapia mid-season on the waiver wire.
There you have it, all the fantasy analysis you’ll need to incorporate your favorite Rockies into you ‘make-believe’ title run. For the no fluff folks out there, here are the top Rockies in Yahoo’s fantasy rankings: Nolan Arenado (6), Charlie Blackmon (12), Carlos Gonzalez (36), Trevor Story (40), DJ LeMahieu (83). Any one of these guys deserves to be in your lineup.
Next: The Denver Athletics Almost Happened
Please comment and let us know your fantasy baseball plans. Also, we’d love to hear any witty or creative Rockies themed fantasy names.