Colorado Rockies: Grading and Analyzing the 2016 Rotation

The Colorado Rockies‘ front office anticipates competing in 2017. A big reason why is because of a young up and coming rotation. Let us take a look back and see if we can find the same level of optimism.

TYLER ANDERSON: 2016 GRADE B+ (fWAR 2.5)

As one of the great surprises, Tyler Anderson emerged as the most consistent starter for the Colorado Rockies in 2016. As a former first-round draft pick, one would like to think that success for Anderson was a full gone conclusion.  To the contrary, Anderson battled a litany of injuries that threatened to hinder his professional career. In his four professional seasons, Anderson has yet to pitch over 125 innings in any single year. One particularly talented and humble writer talked about how 2016 would be a make or break year for Anderson his Rockies future.

In 2016, Anderson started 19 games finishing with a 5-6 record. While the win-loss margin isn’t super impressive, Anderson led the rotation with 3.54 ERA while setting a Colorado Rockies single-season record for striking out 3.53 batters for every walk. Not known for overwhelming velocity, Anderson relies on finesse to get hitters out. Armed with unique polish and an intense competitiveness, Anderson is a pitching coaches’ dream.  Anderson studies hitters and executes an effective game plan very time he takes the hill. In addition to all that, once faced with traffic Anderson rarely gets rattled. Tyler led the rotation in “left on base percentage” (LOB%), stranding 75.1% of base runners.

JORGE DE LA ROSA: 2016 GRADE C- (fWAR 0.03)

Jorge De La Rosa’s Colorado Rockies swan song has come to a close. When it was all said and done, Jorge deserved a better tune. In 2016, Jorge posted the highest ERA of his nine-year Rockies career at 5.51. As the result of a horrific start to the season, Jorge was banished to the bullpen by late May with an ERA of 10.52. The exile of De La Rosa didn’t last, however. A litany of injuries forced the Rockies to return Jorge to the rotation. The veteran would not disappoint. In his next 15 starts, JDLR would go 6-3 with a 3.46 ERA before faltering again over his last three starts of the season.

All in all, the franchise’s all-time leader in wins and strikeouts deserved a better send off than a what a mediocre 2016 provided. Decreased velocity and inconsistent control were the major pitfalls to Jorge’s season. For a guy that has lit up the radar gun at 97 MPH at points in his career, Jorge could get away with missing his spots. In 2016, averaging just 90 MPH with his best fastball, perhaps Jorge was trying to get a little too fine at times.

Currently, Jorge is a free agent and doesn’t appear to ever be in purple pinstripes again. Despite that, Colorado Rockies fans can reminisce and cheer of JDLR as he will represent Mexico in the World Baseball Classic.

JON GRAY: 2016 GRADE A- (fWAR 3.7)

A 10-10 record does not scream “ace pitcher.” Looking past the superficial, you can see the ace in the making in Jon Gray. Notably, Gray set the franchise single-season record for strikeouts per 9 with a 9.91 clip. Speaking about his strikeout ability, Gray struck out 10 or more batters in six of his 29 starts. More impressively, four of those games came in games that Gray pitch six innings or less. As proof that baseball is weird, on Sept. 26, Gray only last 4.0 innings. In total that is only 12 outs recorded. Why does this matter? Ten out of those 12 outs came via strikeout. Clearly, Gray is an exceptional talent.

According to ESPN, Jon Gray’s 9/17 performance against rival San Deigo registers as the fourth best pitching performance of the 2016 season. In a complete game shutout, Gray masterfully struck out a franchise-record 16 batters while only allowing four base runners. By comparison, Gray’s second best outing was a seven-inning scoreless outing against San Francisco where he allowed one hit and struck out five. As one last note of interest, Gray’s ERA was lower at Coors Field than it was on the road.

Now entering his age 25 season, Gray will be expected to shoulder the Colorado Rockies rotation in 2017. After all, the Rockies have playoff hopes for 2017, especially now that their ace has arrived.

CHAD BETTIS: 2016 GRADE B (fWAR 2.6)

In terms of just wins and losses, Chad Bettis was Colorado’s best pitcher in 2016. Considering this, one would expect Chad to lead the team in ERA as well. In contrast, only Jorge De La Rosa sported a worse ERA than Bettis out of regular rotation members. That isn’t to say Chad wasn’t deserving of being the staff leader in wins for 2016.

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In regards to durability, no one was better than Bettis. Notably, Bettis was the only Rockie to start over 30 games, pitching a club-high 186 innings. Bettis saved his best performance of 2016 for rival San Francisco. On Sept. 5, Bettis hurled a complete game shutout, allowing only two baserunners while and striking out seven Giants in the process. Bettis’ year took a very scary turn when he was diagnosed with testicular cancer in December and underwent surgery. In the end, Bettis has been declared cancer-free and is expected to be 100% on Opening Day.

Thus far in his Rockies career, Bettis would only need 10 wins in 2017 to rank 10th on the franchise’s all-time wins list. At just 27, Bettis could eventually rank much higher than tenth on that list.

Here are a few key reasons to be optimistic about Bettis’ 2017 potential. Firstly, Chad’s walk rate has improved every year since 2013. Secondly, Chad’s groundball rate has improved every year and currently sits above 50%. With both of those things in his favor, expect Chad to reach double-digit wins again in 2017.

EDDIE BUTLER, JEFF HOFFMAN, JORDAN LYLES, GERMAN MARQUEZ: 2016 GRADE D+ (COMBINE fWAR 0.0)

Colorado Rockies

The spot starters and September call-ups were asked to start 23 games for the Rockies in 2016. Under those circumstances, it’s easy to tell why they weren’t in the rotation. Once considered a top prospect in all of baseball, Eddie Butler went 2-5 on the year with a horrid 7.17 ERA. Butler has since been shipped out of town. It unfortunate, but not all good prospects pan out. The good news is that another team saw enough potential to try and “fix” Eddie. Here’s to hoping a change of scenery brings him more success.

In that same vain, Jordan Lyles has struggled as a Rockie as well. Lyles days as a starter appear to be behind him as he is now competing for the long man spot out of the pen as we head into Spring Training. While his ERA isn’t outstanding (5.83), Lyles very rarely gives up the long ball. For this reason, Jordan could be a valuable innings eater in one-sided games.

That brings us to Jeff Hoffman and German Marquez. Marquez is a prospect that seemingly came out of nowhere to play across three different levels in 2016. As for Hoffman, he is a Rockies top prospect. Both guys flashed some success in 2016, albeit with some major growing pains.

Next: Analyzing and Grading the 2016 Catchers

As 2017 is around the corner, Marquez and Hoffman will battle it out in spring to be the team’s fifth starter. Due to a talent gap, expect Hoffman to come out on top of that position battle.