Colorado Rockies: We Examine 5 Key Numbers From 2016

2) 3.59

Tyler Anderson‘s FIP

FIP, for those who may not know, stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. ERA, the go-to stat for measuring a pitcher’s effectiveness, is somewhat flawed because it is highly dependent on things like luck and the defense behind the pitcher. FIP is a measure of what a pitcher’s ERA “should” be, based on the three things a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed.

Despite all the cliches about “pitching to contact” in baseball, once a ball has been put into play, a pitcher no longer has control over the outcome. While there are some exceptions, getting batters to hit the ball at fielders more often than normal is not a skill that carries over from year to year with a pitcher.

That’s why it’s so encouraging to see Anderson’s FIP as low as it is. When a pitcher comes from out of nowhere and has immediate success like Anderson did last season, one of the more common explanations is that he’s getting some lucky breaks on balls in play. That isn’t the case for Anderson, as his FIP suggests that his ERA of 3.54 was not an aberration.

Of course, Anderson wasn’t off the radar because of a lack of talent, but because injuries had derailed his career. Anderson has spent time on the DL in each of the last four years, including all of 2015 with a fractured elbow. But there’s a reason the Rockies used a first-round pick on him back in 2011, and he showed it in 2016.

Anderson’s FIP was the lowest of all rookie NL starters in 2016. The biggest reason why? A nasty sinker that generates a lot of ground balls, and perhaps more importantly, keeps the ball in the yard. Anderson also started to strike more hitters out later in the year, getting 40 punchouts over 43.1 innings in his last seven starts.

For long-term ace potential, Jon Gray is still the man in this rotation, but a 1-2 punch of Gray and Anderson looks like it could become a mainstay in Colorado.