Colorado Rockies Roundtable: Who is the 2016 Team MVP?

Members of the Rox Pile team recently exchanged ideas about who should be the Colorado Rockies MVP for the 2016 season. There were plenty of choices.

With DJ LeMahieu finishing the season as the MLB leader in hitting, Nolan Arenado pacing MLB in RBI, and Charlie Blackmon setting new marks from the leadoff position, those were just some of the choices available to our writers.

So who did we pick as this year’s Colorado Rockies team MVP? Read on…

Trevor Irvine

For me, Nolan Arenado is the team’s MVP for 2016.

The team has had a disappointing September when the second Wild Card was on offer (10-16 record). However, the team could have the most wins in a season since 2010 with a good finish this weekend and this season’s overall success is mainly due to the efforts of Arenado.

He played in 160 out of 162 games, has hit .294 with 41 home runs and a new career-high 133 RBI. Arenado is only the third player in baseball history to drive in 130 or more runs in consecutive seasons at age 26 or younger (Chuck Klein and Jimmie Foxx are the others). He is also only the third Rockie ever to have multiple 40-homer, 130-RBI seasons (joining Andres Galarraga from 1996-97 and Todd Helton from 2000-01).

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His fielding has been largely spectacular and he is a lock to win the Gold Glove for third basemen once more. The one downside has been his fielding has fallen off in the second half of the season and he has 13 total errors, with the majority of them coming in recent weeks.

Rockies hitters comfortably led the National League in team batting average (.275) and RBI (805) and Arenado is a major reason for this success. He has become a team leader and he has become more vocal this season, which is positive progression in his confidence.

There are other Rockies who have had good years (Tyler Chatwood, LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Blackmon and Mark Reynolds until their injuries) but the most consistent and important player on the squad is Arenado.

Not only is he the team’s MVP, he should be counted in the NL MVP discussion. But what hurts him most is the team’s overall record and the fact he plays half his games at Coors Field (according to the voters). It’s wrong, but it is what it is.

Nolan Lees

It’s hard to argue with Trevor about Arenado, but I think Charlie Blackmon really established himself as one of the game’s elite center fielders in 2016.

Blackmon made his debut in back in 2011, and up until last season, he looked like yet another Rockies hitter that could only be relied on in home games. In 2015, for instance, Blackmon had an outstanding BA/OBP/SLG line of .331/.390/.500 at Coors Field, but a dismal .238/.300/.395 line on the road.

Then 2016 rolled around, and all of a sudden, Blackmon is mashing the ball no matter where he’s playing. He has a .313 batting average in road games this season, just a shade below his .324 overall batting average. In fact, by some metrics, Blackmon has actually played better away from home. He has a higher slugging percentage and 17 of his 29 total home runs in road games this season.

It’s hard to overstate what a dramatic shift that is. It’s not that Blackmon was a bad player before 2016, but his value was always limited by his meager production on the road. But now, it appears the sky is the limit for the 30-year-old. Blackmon has always had nearly identical numbers against left- and right-handed pitching, so if 2016 is a sign of things to come, the Rockies have themselves one of the most complete, “match-up proof” players in MLB.

Arenado is terrific, and it’s hard not to love Carlos Gonzalez‘s game as well, but there’s an argument to be made that Blackmon is actually the best all-around player on the Rockies.

James Keating

I have to back Andrew on this one and go with DJ LeMahieu as the team’s MVP in 2016. There is no question that Nolan Arenado is the cornerstone and franchise player of this club moving forward, but LeMahieu has been the most consistent aspect of this team

LeMahieu definitely doesn’t have the sexy stats. In 633 plate appearances this season, LeMahieu only has 11 home runs and 66 RBI (both career highs). Comparatively, Arenado has 41 home runs and 133 RBI, which are video game type numbers. But hear me out.

As Andrew mentioned, LeMahieu won the batting title with his .348 average, but there is a problem here. Average assumes that all hits are created equally, and we just simply know that that’s just not true. In conjunction, DJ is third in the Majors with an on-base-percentage of .416, that’s 35 points higher than the next Rockie (Blackmon at .381). One could argue that getting on base is what matters most offensively, but like AVG, OBP assumes all times on base are equally, again not a true assumption.

By taking an advanced look at the numbers, it’s pretty clear that DJ is the most valuable offensive player in the clubhouse despite a lack of the sexy numbers.

In an attempt to overcome the assumption problems laid out above, an advanced statistic called Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) integrates all the varying aspects of hitting into one value, weighting each hit and time on base in accordance too their true value in creating run production. Put simply, wOBA shows offensive value more accurately than AVG, OBP, and even slugging percentage.

I’m sure you can guess where I’m going with this. Heading into the weekend, DJ led the squad with an wOBA of .393 while Blackmon was second at .389, and then Nolan at .385. Still not sold? Well, if we control for park effects and weigh each offensive action, DJ again takes the cake with a Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 129 whereas Blackmon has a wRC+ of 126 and Nolan comes in at 124.

By taking an advanced look at the numbers, it’s pretty clear that DJ is the most valuable offensive player in the clubhouse despite a lack of the sexy numbers.

Tim Enquist

I agree with all of the points you all have made, and it is nice to have so many options for team MVP this year. My choice for most outstanding is Nolan Arenado for similar reasons to the ones Trevor laid out.

Call to the Pen

My choice for most valuable, however, is Jon Gray. I don’t think he had the best year of any Rockie in 2016, but I think it was the most important for the future. I think Gray’s 2016 campaign has started to prove that a power pitcher can succeed at Coors field and this is extremely valuable for the Rockies with the philosophy they are building the team around.

With many “big arms” in the minors working their way to the majors, it is very valuable to have someone performing so well in MLB. You could see this is a strategy the Rockies were taking having Jeff Hoffman‘s locker right next to Gray’s. He can teach the young guys, like Hoffman, German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela what he has learned about the differences in pitching at Coors Field.

I also feel for the past 10 years there have been so few pitchers succeeding at the major league level for the Rockies it had to compound the “fear” of the park for the guys developing in the minors. Now hopefully it will be more of a “Gray can do it, so can I.” I think this could be the most valuable contribution of the year for the Rockies.

Obviously, Gray’s numbers are nothing to scoff at either. He has the Rockies record for strikeouts at 185, has made 29 starts, compiling an ERA of 4.61. His FIP is a solid 3.60 and a WAR on Fangraphs of 3.7. His 16-strikeout performance was the best pitched game in Rockies history, capping a huge year for a guy who is only going to get better.

Kevin Henry

I have to admit, when we started this discussion, I was pretty sold on Arenado being the team MVP. However, there are some pretty darn solid arguments for other players in here as well.

I was almost swayed toward Blackmon just because some of the ridiculous numbers he has put up from the leadoff position this season. He’s also put together some crazy stretches of just mashing the ball out of the park. He has two National League Player of the Week awards this year to show for it.

However, I think if you look at the word “valuable” in there, I also think about the one Rockies player that the team could ill afford to lose to injury or leaving for another team. Absolutely, when Blackmon or CarGo was out this season with injuries, it was noticed. However, there were a crop of young outfielders to help take their place.

The infield is a little different. Take DJ out of the infield and, as solid as Daniel Descalso or even Tony Wolters might be, the quality of play at second base takes a hit.

Now multiply that and that’s what happens when Arenado is not in the lineup. It’s a dramatic dropoff from Arenado’s defensive skills to anyone else who takes over the hot corner. Nothing against Descalso or Cristhian Adames, but they are no Arenado.

Think about how many times this season your mouth has dropped when Nolan has made a play or you simply typed #NolanBeingNolan on Twitter. He showed time and time again this season what an amazing asset he is for the Rockies … and just how powerful his entire career might be.

Put together the homers, the RBI, the defensive prowess and the passion for playing the game (remember the Nick Hundley incident in San Diego?) and it’s clear that Nolan is not only the team MVP but also has evolved into a leader in the clubhouse.

Next: The Top 5 Center Fielders in Colorado History

P.S. As Trevor said, Arenado should absolutely be in the National League MVP discussion as well.