Colorado Rockies: 5 Bold Predictions for the Second Half

The Rockies Will Make the Playoffs

I thought this was lunacy prior to the All-Star break. The hitting and pitching had been inconsistent, and the team couldn’t string more than two good performances in a row.

But the break came at a perfect time for the Rockies.

Since the All-Star break, other than the hiccup in losing the home series to the lowly Tampa Bay Rays, the performances have been A-plus.

The rotation’s ERA since the All-Star break is 4.19, down from 4.48 prior to the break. The team’s batting average has dropped from .273 prior to the break to .237 since, as has the OBP from .335 to. 315. Interestingly, the team has the best home batting average (.301) and the worst road batting average (.237) in the National League.

But they are winning games!

And they are 50-52 on the year!

The reason the Rockies will make the playoffs is their pitching. Yes, their pitching. Jon Gray is becoming a bona fide star, and Tyler Anderson is getting better and better. Chad Bettis has returned to form, and Tyler Chatwood and Jorge De La Rosa (if he remains on the team) just need to be steady and give the team a chance to win when they pitch.

The squad is high on confidence right now, and the rest of the schedule is fairly weak, with plenty of games remaining against the lowly Phillies, Brewers, Padres and Diamondbacks.

If they can hold serve against the likes of the Nationals, the Giants, and the Dodgers, this goal becomes even more realistic.

Provided Walt Weiss does not wear out his bullpen with his seemingly endless pitching matchup changes, the Rockies will pull out the NL’s second Wild Card berth, and will finish the season at 88-74, and in the process jump the Marlins, Cardinals, Mets, and Pirates.

Of course this would be an upset (the Rockies were recently given a 2 percent chance to make the postseason).

But your’e saying there’s a chance, right?

Yes there is!

Next: Three Rockies Will Hit 35-plus Home Runs

Three Rockies Will Hit 35-plus Home Runs

It is almost a certainty the trio of Nolan Arenado (26 HRs), Trevor Story (27 HRs) and Carlos Gonzalez (20 HRs) will all meet the 35-plus HR threshold by season’s end.

With the strong recent play by the Rockies, it would be a surprise to see the team now make any major moves before the non-waiver trade deadline on Monday. This includes Gonzalez, who has been mentioned repeatedly in trade talks.

Assuming Gonzalez stays, he will have a strong second half. He is currently hitting .316 and there is no reason he cannot maintain this pace. He will be ably assisted by Story, whose breakout rookie season is increasingly bringing better pitches to hit for CarGo.

Arenado and Story can have sub-par second halves and easily make this level. They have hit 12 HR and 11 HR respectively on the road, but their respective averages are lower than at home. If they can start hitting on the road in a more similar fashion like at home, then look out.

Next: Gray Will Win the NL Rookie of the Year Award

Jon Gray Will Win the NL Rookie of the Year Award

Gray is getting better and better with every start. Since the All-Star break, Gray has gone 2-0, with an 0.86 ERA, having pitched seven innings in three straight games, and only allowing one run or fewer in each start. Gray is the first Rockies pitcher in club history to achieve this feat.

Gray’s seven wins are ranked third in the NL for rookie starting pitchers (only the Dodgers Kenta Maeda (nine) and the Brewers Zach Davies (eight) have more wins.

Gray’s overall stats compare favorably with both Maeda and Davies:

• Maeda: 9-7, 3.25 ERA, 113.2 IP, 41 ER, 12 HR allowed, 32 BB, 115 Ks;
• Davies: 8-4, 3.59 ERA, 105.1 IP, 42 ER, 12 HR allowed, 27 BB, 85 Ks;
• Gray: 7-4, 3.94 ERA, 109.2 IP, 48 ER, 13 HR allowed, 35 BB, 114 Ks

When you take into account the Coors Field effect, Gray’s stats are more impressive. Dodger Stadium is a pitcher’s park and Milwaukee, to be fair, is more of a hitter’s park, but it’s not Coors Field. Since the All-Star break, Maeda has a 6.30 ERA and Davies has a 1.37 ERA. Gray has out-pitched them both.

Gray is developing his secondary pitches to be more effective, which will benefit him the rest of the season. His slider and his fastball are his best pitches, but his curveball and changeup are becoming increasingly good.

If Gray can break the 10-win barrier in his rookie season, and he remains dominant like he has shown since the break, he will deserve the NL Rookie of the Year Award.

Next: Estevez Will Save 25-plus Games

Carlos Estevez Will Save 25-plus Games

Since taking over the closer’s role from Jake McGee, Estevez has been very good in the role.

After today he is 11-for-14 in save opportunities, and over his last three games he has pitched three-straight 1-2-3 innings.

His 11 saves are miles ahead of the next closest rookie closer in the NL, Seung-hwan Oh of the Cardinals with six.

If the Rockies can get to the 88-win mark on the year, out of the 38 wins they would get, you would expect Estevez to easily achieve 14-plus saves in that frame to reach this threshold.

Estevez has the great high-90s fastball, but his best pitch is his slider, which is wipe-out material. He has now recorded five saves in the last eight days, per CBSsports.com:

Fantasy owners have been reaping great rewards from Estevez, as he’s recorded five saves in the last eight days and is carrying terrific rate stats by Colorado pitching standards. In fact, he’s only given up one run in his last nine appearances.

As a rookie, he will continue to have bumps in the road over the remainder of the season. But, he has taken over the closer role with aplomb and his confidence just continues to grow. Barring a meltdown, the Rockies have no reason to remove him from the role for the rest of the season.

Next: Weiss Will Manage the Rockies in 2017

Walt Weiss Will Manage the Rockies in 2017

I know, this one is more of an offseason prediction, but the Rockies performance over the rest of this season will determine his fate. Weiss is in the last year of his contract and general manager Jeff Bridich doesn’t seem to be in a rush to get him re-signed.

If the Rockies manage to win the second Wild Card this year he is all but guaranteed to return. He is seen as a “players coach” and he relates well to the roster.

Personally, I’d like him to get more animated and angry when things aren’t going well, or even when things do go well. However, after today’s win (the first after trailing after eight innings), even got him fired up:

I would also like to see the clamping down of all the pitching changes he likes to do each game. I understand the benefit of the matchups, but there are times he “over-manages” the pitching staff, and effective pitchers are removed just to create a “matchup” which may or may not work.

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The Rockies have not been to the playoffs since 2009. If Weiss orchestrates a turnaround to a winning ballclub both at home and on the road, he will carry all the momentum and it would be shocking to see Bridich go in a different direction.

With the pitching improving all the time, and the hitting remains solid, and the players remain engaged, Weiss’ future looks bright, and a new contract for 2017 and beyond will be a formality.

Next: Colorado Rockies: What Should They Do Now? Buy or Sell?

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise indicated.