Sep 14, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher J. Gray (55) works against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Jon Gray, rotation mainstay?
(via Purple Row)
Eric Garcia-McKinley is a really smart (and yes, sabermetric-focused) guy, and you should read this entire piece on Jon Gray that he put together, so I’ll only share a very small portion of the end of it, and let him contextualize what Gray’s stats mean at this link right here:
"“The last time I was in Colorado covering a Rockies game, Bryan Kilpatrick and I were chatting about statistics with Cory Sullivan in the dugout. He said something to the effect of “players don’€™t care about FIP.” In one sense, heâ€’s wrong. If players care about walks, strikeouts, and home runs, they care about FIP. They just don’€™t call it FIP. The same can be said about cFIP and each of its components. In another sense, though, he’€™s right. I have no delusions that I can make Jon Gray feel better about his 5.53 ERA by informing him of his cFIP. Jon Gray isn’€™t my audience for this piece though. The purpose of it is to save the Rockies watcher’s hands from violent offseason wringing. It’€™s still possible that the inability to make mental adjustments can derail him, but he’€™s made mental, as well as mechanical, adjustments in the past, so I trust heâ€’ll do so again. Advanced statistics might help prevent a crisis of confidence for some players, but I don’t think Gray is one of them. Because of that, we should keep in mind the anxiety that Nick Groke recently reported when we watch Gray pitch next season, especially at home. It’s up to the Rockies coaches to get his mind on something else, because all other on the field factors suggest he’s going to be just fine.”"
Gray still has a lot of work to do, and it’s not foreseeable yet if he can be an ace, or a star, or a good number 2 or 3 starter, or even a long-time serviceable big leaguer. What is for certain is that numbers seem to point in his direction thus far, and he’s done enough on the mound to pass the eye test, too, that would suggest there are some things about which you should be very encouraged.
We don’t yet know if the Colorado Rockies have a legit future-of-the-franchise starter in Gray. Will we know next year? Probably. Also, maybe not! It takes guys a while to develop. But we will have a much better idea after another season than we do right now with just 40 innings to the young man’s name.
Next: Mat Latos, 2016 option in the rotation?