Two Colorado Rockies Set To Regress In The Second Half

Jul 14, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; National League third baseman N. Arenado (28) of the Colorado Rockies throws to first base against the American League during the eighth inning of the 2015 MLB All Star Game at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Third Baseman Nolan Arenado

Yes, sadly, our MVP!

There’s no doubt Nolan Arenado is the Colorado Rockies’ Most Valuable Player in the first half of 2015, but you guys don’t actually believe he can keep up his home run/RBI/offensive output pace, do you?

I don’t have any doubts he’s going to keep making amazing plays at third base, but there’s something to be said for him to tail off a bit at the plate, considering he’s besting himself in every offensive slash category and well above his career paces this year.

Sure, there’s something to be said for his development as a player — and you can make the argument he’s beating all his career paces and totals because he’s improving in his third year of big league ball, but I’m taking the under on Arenado for August and September. Because I’m a pessimist, and I hate baseball, and I hate all of you. (Just kidding, but I do firmly believe in players at least sort of regressing to the mean over 162 games.)

Interestingly, the numbers don’t back me up; in his career in the second half, Arenado has had averages 20 points higher, on-base percentages nearly thirty points higher, and an OPS fifteen points higher compared to his first half numbers. What the hell do I know?

If he’s really going to out-do his first half with a better second half, though… giddyup, y’all. The Colorado Rockies would have a really special player on their hands.

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