Lessons From The Colorado Rockies Other 7-2 Starts

Apr 12, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; General view of Coors Field during the fourth inning of the game between the Chicago Cubs against the Colorado Rockies. The Cubs defeated the Rockies 6-5. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

1995 (finished 77-67)

The 1995 Colorado Rockies enjoyed the first playoff berth in club history, losing in the NLDS to the Atlanta Braves, three games to one.

That club actually started 7-1 in the strike-shortened season, but on May 5, 6, and 7, they were swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers (where the current Rockies find themselves this weekend). The ’95 club went just 6-6 after the sweep to come back down to earth with a 13-10 record by the end of play on May 20.

That iteration of the Rockies was 44-28 at home (.611), and 33-39 on the road (.458), while doing very well against Montreal (7-1 in eight games), and very poorly against the Braves and Dodgers (4-9 against both clubs).

Offensively, everybody led those Rockies; five guys had more than 20 doubles in the 144-game season, and four guys had more than thirty home runs, including Dante Bichette who somehow managed to drive in 128 runners in just 139 games.

The pitching staff was surprisingly not awful (you know, for the park and the era), with Kevin Ritz having a nice year (4.21 ERA, 4.15 FIP across 173.1 innings) and Curtis Leskanic pitching his face off (probably literally!) out of the bullpen (1.18 WHIP, 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings across 76 games/98 frames).

Interestingly, the 1995 Rockies fielded the ball well, too; the club finished fourth in the National League in fielding percentage, so perhaps the Blake Street Bombers had a little Coors Shield in ‘em even then.

ONE WEIRD STAT: Uh, well, maybe this right here when the Chicago Cubs put up 26 runs in Denver on August 18, 1995.

The Cubs, on the road, made three errors, walked five batters, allowed ten hits, and….. won. By.…. 19 runs.

That’s because they hit seven doubles, a triple, and three home runs in front of 48,082 poor, unfortunate souls at Coors Field.

But!! Current bullpen coach Darren Holmes threw a scoreless ninth inning with two strikeouts, so I guess that’s good.

Next: 1997: A streaky team

Mar 29, 2014; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Larry Walker (33) is introduced during the ceremony for the 1994 Expos before the game between the New York Mets and the Toronto Blue Jays at Olympic Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

1997 (finished 83-79)

The 1997 Colorado Rockies took their hot start in reverse, dropping their first two games to the Cincinnati Reds before ripping off seven straight victories. They finished third in the NL West that year, four games over .500 but seven games behind the division champion San Francisco Giants and nine games behind the wild card (and eventual World Series champion) Florida Marlins.

The ’97 Rox went 47-34 at home (.580), while surviving at 36-45 (.444) on the road. They dominated the Cubs, going 9-2 against them that summer, but had trouble with the division champion Giants, winning just four games in twelve tries.

Interestingly, they were a very streaky team; between July 1 and July 19, they went 1-15, with their one victory coming in a walk-off win against the Padres. They entered that skid at 43-39, and were 44-54 by the time it was done, so… who knows what might have happened if they didn’t fall apart in July. They redeemed themselves in August with a nine-game winnings streak, and at one point won 16 of 18 games August 25^th through September 15^th.

Larry Walker was an All Star, won a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, the National League MVP, and led the league in on-base percentage and slugging percentage that season, slashing .366/.452/.720 in 664 plate appearances. He only mashed 208 hits, 46 doubles, and 49 home runs, and walked 78 times against 90 strikeouts.

I guess that’s OK.

The pitching, uh, let’s not even talk about it. Thanks for asking, though.

(Look, all you need to know is the Rockies gave Jamey Wright 149.2 innings across 26 starts where he had a 6.25 ERA, a 5.61 FIP, and he walked 71 batters against just 59 strikeouts, ok?! Stop asking!!)

ONE WEIRD STAT: On April 13, 1997 – as a relief pitcher – Darren Holmes hit a solo home run in the fifth inning off Carlos Perez. Baseball Reference lists it as “to deep left field,” so I’m sure Darren can tell us how he hit it off the Jumbotron, right?

Holmes never had another extra base hit, and would hit just two more singles – both in 1997 – in his 13-year big league career.

Next: 2011: Hot Start, Ice Cold Finish

Sep 25, 2013; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies first baseman Todd Helton (17) calls for time after sliding into second base following his double in the fifth inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

2011 (finished 73-89)

The 2011 Colorado Rockies actually started 11-2, with both losses by one run (Arizona on Opening Day, and Pittsburgh on April 8). The hot start didn’t last, though, as the club finished just 62-87, and were 21 games out of first place in the NL West by year’s end.

This club struggled at home (38-43, just .469), and yet interestingly wasn’t terrible on the road (35-46, .432). The division destroyed them; they went just 10-26 combined against the Giants and Diamondbacks, and couldn’t overcome it against the Dodgers and Padres, earning an in-division record of just 28-44 (.389).

After the hot 11-2 start, and a 17-8 record for the month of April (the Rockies were leading the division by 4.5 games at the beginning of play May 1^st), May was a cruel, cruel mistress. The club went 8-21 in May, and by the end of that month had lost nine games in the standings, from which they couldn’t recover.

The kiss of death was probably a road trip to Arizona and San Francisco May 3-8. The Rockies went 1-5 on the six-game trip, and were the victims of three consecutive walk-off losses (one to Arizona, two to San Francisco) on May 5, 6, and 7. Felipe Paulino took three losses in relief on that six-game road trip, and after a fourth loss in relief ten days later, the club shipped him to Kansas City.

Offensively, the Rockies only hit .258/.329/.410 that summer, with just two regulars – Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki – hitting above .300 (and each only hit .302!). Tulo mashed 30 home runs, and Carlos Gonzalez added 26 of his own. This was also the last year Jason Giambi was good, hitting 13 home runs and six doubles and slashing .260/.355/.603 in just 152 plate appearances before struggling the next three years before retirement.

On the mound, Jhoulys Chacin led the way and the team earned a 4.43 ERA (4.24 FIP), which was good enough for 15^th among National League squads.

Jorge De La Rosa looked brilliant across ten starts to begin the year until Tommy John surgery tripped him up, and Rex Brothers burst onto the scene that summer with 59 strikeouts and just 20 walks allowed – his lowest walk rate to date – in 40.2 innings.

ONE WEIRD STAT: The Rockies hit a whopping 40 triples that year, including 15 from Dexter Fowler alone. Interestingly, Fowler didn’t lead the league in triples (he did the year before, with 14), finishing third behind Shane Victorino and Jose Reyes, who both hit 16.

And, neither did the Rockies; they were second in triples behind the San Diego Padres, who hit 42 (but, the Padres hit just 91 home runs and 247 doubles, compared to the Rockies hitting 163 and 274, respectively).

Next: What Can The 2015 Colorado Rockies Learn?

Apr 15, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; Colorado Rockies catcher Nick Hundley (left) hands the ball back to relief pitcher Logan Boone in the eighth inning after San Francisco Giants third baseman Matt Duffy (not pictured) hit a solo home run at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports

Lessons Learned

Maybe the best lesson the Rockies can learn (or… that we want them to learn) is from the 1995 team, because they went to the playoffs following a hot start. The ’97 and ’11 teams sputtered which, obviously, we’d hope doesn’t happen this summer.

The ’95 team had the worst ERA in the league, but made up for it with an amazing offense (the most runs per game, hits, triples, home runs, RBIs, and highest batting average) and a good bullpen (the ’95 Rox finished second in the league in saves despite finishing fifth in wins).

Road games matter

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Interestingly, a theme from all three clubs are the records on the road. After the hot April starts, none blew up away from Coors Field.

Whether 1995 (strike-shortened 33-39, .458, on pace for 37 wins in a full season), 1997 (36-45, .444), or 2011 (35-46, .432), all were competitive enough on the road.

In a hypothetical 2015, combine 35-37 road wins with the typical home field advantage (say, 45+ wins, like the abysmal 2014 Rockies were still able to earn?) and you’ve got an 82-ish win team already.

That won’t earn a Wild Card in all likelihood, but baseball’s weird, and if weird things can happen in the Rockies’ favor over the course of 162 games, maybe 82+ wins can become 87+ wins through good fortune. (Think that’s a pipe dream? Ask the 2012 Baltimore Orioles.)

But the point is, the good fortune is irrelevant if you don’t give yourself a chance on the road and you don’t take advantage of the home field in the first place. These current Rockies have been giving themselves a chance on the road early. All they can hope is that the 6-0 road start is a sign of things to come, and the club can at least win 35 road games this summer.

Combined with the home-field advantage the club’s almost always possessed and assuming, you know, relatively good health, I think 35 is the magic number of road wins. If the Rockies win 35+ on the road, you’re looking at a .500 or better team. If they win another 21 on the road this year, forget it.

May has been brutal to the Rockies

The other major lesson to learn from this little exercise is the month of May is brutal on the Colorado Rockies. The 1995 season started late after the strike so it’s a little difficult to judge May for that team, though it was one of their only two months below .500 (they went 13-15 in May).

Nevertheless, May records for 1997 (12-17), and 2011 (8-21) brought hot April starts back down to earth very quickly, causing each club to slog through the rest of the summer in relative anonymity.

The lesson from that, of course, is that baseball seasons are long, and hot April starts don’t mean diddly squat if May is going to be a wake-up call. You can’t win the division in April (but you can lose it!), and as the Rockies have historically found out, well, you can also lose the division in May.

The 2015 Rockies will play 28 games in the month of May (13 at home, and 15 on the road), with three off days. Ten of those games will be against two teams that are supposed to be very bad (the Diamondbacks and Phillies). Assuming the Rockies continue to play relatively well in April, and if the Rockies can win 13 or more games in May, then we will have to start taking this team seriously. But as has historically been the case, if the April boom brings on a May bust in 2015, well, it’ll be a long summer.

Maybe this was an exercise in futility. As I mentioned up top, perhaps there aren’t any lessons to be learned from 1995, 1997, and 2011. All teams are unique, opponents are different, things don’t quite match up, and it’s obviously impossible to predict future stats no matter how specific projections systems have become.

Nevertheless, I’ll maintain the Rockies have two keys moving forward: win at least 35 games on the road this year, and win at least 13 games in the month of May. If they can do those two things, they’ll be better than anyone imagined. Depending on how well they do those two things, they could (maybe) play into October.

Either way, wasn’t it fun thinking about Darren Holmes hitting a home run?