Rex Brothers Player Preview: the good, the bad, and the unknown

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Rex Brothers was the closer of the future. Then he was the closer. Now he is the closer of the future again, or something like that.

LaTroy Hawkins will close most of the time. Brothers will close some of the time, along with Boone Logan from time to time.

Regardless of who is going to count saves this year, Brothers will remain the team’s most important relief pitcher.

Stats and Projections

• 2013 stats: 67.1 IP, 10.16 K/9, 4.81 BB/9, 1.74 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 19 saves, 1.1 fWAR
• 2014 PECOTA: 63 IP, 11 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 3.24 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 5 saves, 1.2 WARP
• 2014 Oliver: 68 IP, 10.67 K/9, 4.48 BB/9, 3.56 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 1.o WAR
• 2014 Steamer: 65 IP, 10.28 K/9, 4.53 BB/9, 3.46 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 10 saves, 0.7 WAR
• 2014 ZiPS: 70.7 IP, 11.20 K/9, 4.46 BB/9, 3.31 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 1.o zWAR
• Hayden Projections: 25 saves, 12 K/9, and 5,500 times referred to as “gritty,” “gutsy,” and “not afraid of anybody”

Studio Picture

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Ruling: Stiff, bored, generally unhappy about taking pictures, possibly self-conscious about how skinny his arms look

As for his performance on the mound, let’s take a look at the good, the bad, and the unknown for Brothers and what it all means for his 2014 season.

The Good #1: his slider against left-handed hitters

If the Rockies relegated Brothers to a role as a LOOGY, he would be the best LOOGY in the land. His two pitch mix is a fastball he can run up there in the mid 90’s and an absolutely wicked slider.

Exhibit A – strike three on Robinson Cano

Exhibit B – strike three on Matt Adams

In a word, these quality left-handed hitters are helpless. His slider is so tough on lefties that he can also catch them cheating, running his fastball on their hands before they can react.

Exhibit C – Brett Gardner pop-out

Note that, even though Brothers can throw it 95 MPH, all it takes is a 90 MPH pitch to record the out.

The Good #2 – his slider against right-handed hitters

As we know by now, Brothers is no LOOGY, as his out pitch is just as tough on right-handed pitchers. As such, he will be a rare left-handed closer if ever he is finally handed that job.

In that same game that he K’ed Adams in the previous slide to end the game, he struck out two fantastic right-handed hitters using that same slider.

Exhibit D – strike three on Matt Holliday

Brothers had Holliday lunging in the fashion reserved for a guy who starts swinging and then realizes: “Oh crap, I’m going to miss this by a lot…”

Exhibit E – strike three on Carlos Beltran

Granted, batting right against left-handed pitchers is Beltran’s weaker side, but the example is still noteworthy.

Brothers misses bats and strikes out a lot of hitters. His plus fastball is part of that success, but his slider is truly the wipe-out pitch against hitters from both sides of the plate.

The Bad #1 – fastball command

The effectiveness of his slider, a pitch rarely thrown in the strike zone but swung at and missed nevertheless, is predicated on Brothers’ ability to throw his fastball for a strike. Unfortunately for him and for Rockies fans, the growing pains he still experiences from time to time come from a lack of such command. Take these two examples from a blown save against the San Diego Padres.

Exhibit F – misses way outside to right-handed hitter

Exhibit G – makes left-handed bunt-attemptor jump

The Bad #2 – the results of bad fastball command

This lack of command can, on occasion, make Brothers more hittable. That starts with occasions where he gets too much of the plate with a fastball, as is the case on this game-tying home run from Chase Headley.

Exhibit H – Headley home run

And if the hitter doesn’t need to fret about Brothers’ fastball because he is spraying it around, his slider becomes at least a little more hittable. In those rare instances there is even a chance for the opposing team to enjoy the boundless joy of the walk-off victory at Rex’s expense.

Exhibit I – Padres walk-off win whatever