Rex Brothers Player Preview: the good, the bad, and the unknown

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Rex Brothers was the closer of the future. Then he was the closer. Now he is the closer of the future again, or something like that.

LaTroy Hawkins will close most of the time. Brothers will close some of the time, along with Boone Logan from time to time.

Regardless of who is going to count saves this year, Brothers will remain the team’s most important relief pitcher.

Stats and Projections

• 2013 stats: 67.1 IP, 10.16 K/9, 4.81 BB/9, 1.74 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 19 saves, 1.1 fWAR
• 2014 PECOTA: 63 IP, 11 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 3.24 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 5 saves, 1.2 WARP
• 2014 Oliver: 68 IP, 10.67 K/9, 4.48 BB/9, 3.56 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 1.o WAR
• 2014 Steamer: 65 IP, 10.28 K/9, 4.53 BB/9, 3.46 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 10 saves, 0.7 WAR
• 2014 ZiPS: 70.7 IP, 11.20 K/9, 4.46 BB/9, 3.31 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 1.o zWAR
• Hayden Projections: 25 saves, 12 K/9, and 5,500 times referred to as “gritty,” “gutsy,” and “not afraid of anybody”

Studio Picture

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Ruling: Stiff, bored, generally unhappy about taking pictures, possibly self-conscious about how skinny his arms look

As for his performance on the mound, let’s take a look at the good, the bad, and the unknown for Brothers and what it all means for his 2014 season.

The Good #1: his slider against left-handed hitters

If the Rockies relegated Brothers to a role as a LOOGY, he would be the best LOOGY in the land. His two pitch mix is a fastball he can run up there in the mid 90’s and an absolutely wicked slider.

Exhibit A – strike three on Robinson Cano

Exhibit B – strike three on Matt Adams

In a word, these quality left-handed hitters are helpless. His slider is so tough on lefties that he can also catch them cheating, running his fastball on their hands before they can react.

Exhibit C – Brett Gardner pop-out

Note that, even though Brothers can throw it 95 MPH, all it takes is a 90 MPH pitch to record the out.

The Bad #1 – fastball command

The effectiveness of his slider, a pitch rarely thrown in the strike zone but swung at and missed nevertheless, is predicated on Brothers’ ability to throw his fastball for a strike. Unfortunately for him and for Rockies fans, the growing pains he still experiences from time to time come from a lack of such command. Take these two examples from a blown save against the San Diego Padres.

Exhibit F – misses way outside to right-handed hitter

Exhibit G – makes left-handed bunt-attemptor jump

The Bad #2 – the results of bad fastball command

This lack of command can, on occasion, make Brothers more hittable. That starts with occasions where he gets too much of the plate with a fastball, as is the case on this game-tying home run from Chase Headley.

Exhibit H – Headley home run

And if the hitter doesn’t need to fret about Brothers’ fastball because he is spraying it around, his slider becomes at least a little more hittable. In those rare instances there is even a chance for the opposing team to enjoy the boundless joy of the walk-off victory at Rex’s expense.

Exhibit I – Padres walk-off win whatever

The Unknown – his role Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Like many Rockies fans (I think), I was irked when the team signed Hawkins. I had longed for the days that Brothers would finally be the closer because there just have not been many Rockies’ relievers with his kind of plus-plus stuff over the years.

But with some time to consider it and to hear manager Walt Weiss talk about it, I am starting to think the team might dispatch Brothers in a manner to maximize his contributions to the team’s success. Weiss says the team will look at match-ups starting in about the 7th inning and decide who will be used when. If nothing else, it sounds like bullpen roles will not be set in stone, and that is a good thing.

People tend to balk at the words “closer by committee,” but that is the wrong way to look at this. Brothers is the best option the Rockies have to get out the other team’s best hitters, left-handed or right-handed. If that happens in the 7th inning, then that’s when the team should use Brothers. If that happens in the 9th inning and comes with a save opportunity, then that is where the team should use Brothers.

What I fear, and what I don’t know, is if the team will stick to this flexible plan or if they will fall back into old habits once competitive baseball is happening. If they do, Brothers would pair with a right-handed reliever (Matt Belisle or Adam Ottavino or Wilton Lopez) as the set-up men for Hawkins the closer.

In that scenario Brothers will be one of the best left-handed set-up guys in the game, but it will be a tremendous waste.