Colorado Rockies 2015 Crystal Ball: Justin Morneau

Apr 21, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies first baseman Justin Morneau (33) is congratulated after scoring in the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

As the season gets underway, RoxPile.com is making some fun (but completely unqualified!) predictions about how members of the Colorado Rockies will fare this summer. In this edition: Justin Morneau.

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Justin Morneau reinvented his career in Denver in 2014, winning the National League batting title while being the first man to run the show at first base after Todd Helton’s illustrious career.

So in 2015, the Rockies expect him to hold down the first base job (well, perhaps with Wilin Rosario at points), and be a solid contributor in the fourth spot of the batting order just as last year.

Is that realistic for the veteran Canadian slugger? Let’s take a look at the projections and see what we can deduce.

What The Numbers Say

FanGraphs lists various projection systems, which you can learn more about here.

Neither ZiPS nor Steamer believes Morneau will play a full season in 2015, pegging him to start between 110 and 125 games while getting between 475 and 525 plate appearances. That could be for any reason: hypothetical injury due to age, Rosario’s presence at first, etc.

Regardless, they all believe him to regress pretty significantly back to his career averages and away from last summer’s .319/.364/.496 slash line. That shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering he’s only hit above .300 once in his career (2006) before his re-invention with the Rockies. Still, a projected slash line hovering around .280/.340/.460 wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for the Rockies.

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Best-Case Scenario

A best-case scenario involves another batting title, right? That’d be amazing, but really, a best-case scenario involves a healthy Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. If those two hitting in front of Morneau are healthy all season, Justin will get his due from pitchers not wanting to face Tulo and CarGo, and then being forced to give something good to Morneau directly behind them.

The fact that he hit .319 last summer without having to protect Tulo and CarGo for a significant portion of the season is even more impressive, but any success Morneau has this summer depends on those guys (and, behind Morneau, how Dickerson and Arenado fare, as well).

Considering that, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Morneau to crest .300 again this summer while seeing the majority of time at first base in Denver.

Worst-Case Scenario

A worst-case scenario would involve an injury, something Morneau has certainly dealt with in the past, and something that nearly derailed his career in Minnesota.

Obviously, one would hope concussion symptoms never return for him (and fortunately, it sounds like he has them under control), but any injury and lengthy absence would hurt the Rockies as they’d lose an anchor to their lineup and a powerful, experienced left-handed bat and good glove.

The other worst-case scenario could involve, well, age! The guy’s about to turn 34, after all, and has been in the big leagues for 13 seasons. He still likely has at least a year or two left in the tank, but skills start to erode quickly once you get too many years north of 30, and you could probably make the argument his 2014 batting title was his swan song as his career begins to wrap up.

Crystal Ball

I’ll split the difference on Morneau. He won’t win another batting title, but I’m also skeptical of him reverting that far back (forty points) to a .280-ish average, especially if he’s in the middle of a lineup with CarGo, Tulo, Arenado, and Dickerson (let’s just assume health, please, ok?). Plus, regardless of your opinion on the matter, he will get some starts taken away due to the presence of Rosario at first base, now.

All that being said, look for a .295/.340/.475 (ish) slash line from him, and another 15+ home runs hitting out of the cleanup spot while playing good defense at first base.

Give us your predictions!

Comment below, find us on Facebook, or tweet us @RoxPileFS and let us know. You can also use the hashtag #RoxCrystalBall.