Colorado Rockies 2015 Crystal Ball: Wilin Rosario

Apr 8, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Colorado Rockies catcher Wilin Rosario (20) is greeted in the dugout after hitting a solo home run in the tenth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

As the season gets underway, RoxPile.com is making some fun (but completely unqualified!) predictions about how members of the Colorado Rockies will fare this summer. In this edition: Wilin Rosario.

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After catching for the Colorado Rockies the last several years, Wilin Rosario lost his position thanks to poor defense and game-calling, and the arrival of free agent backstop Nick Hundley over the winter.

Now, Rosario is trying to reinvent himself as a first baseman (or, possibly right fielder?), and a pinch-hitter with a power bat the Rockies can use in tight late-inning games.

Will it work?

What The Numbers Say

FanGraphs lists various projection systems, which you can learn more about here.

Interestingly, ZiPS believes that Rosario will get around 420 plate appearances this summer with the Rockies, which would have to indicate he’d see significant time at catcher or first base. That’s possible, I suppose, if somebody goes down to injury (or Justin Morneau is traded), but not likely.

Either way, both ZiPS and Steamer believe Rosario will hit right near his career average (.274), on-base percentage (.307), and slugging percentage (.485), with ZiPS being slightly more skeptical of Rosario than Steamer seems to be. Neither one believes he will eclipse the 20-home run threshold this season (even with his 420+ plate appearances with ZiPS), and both think he’ll continue to strike out around 20% of the time.

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Call to the Pen

Best-Case Scenario

Rosario’s best-case scenario is probably, well, three-fold: a good trade, his ascension into the starting lineup after someone else’s trade (or injury), or a reinvention as a pinch-hitter.

As a trade piece, Rosario has value. He has incredible power for a catcher, and, relative to what most catchers are bringing to the plate offensively in baseball, he’s got weapons in his arsenal. As the season progresses, one best-case scenario would be to trade him for a prospect-ish player or somewhat-established Major Leaguer as teams figure out what they need, what they’re missing, and what happens regarding injuries.

A second best-case scenario would involve him becoming the starting first baseman (if Morneau got traded or injured), or the starting right fielder (if Carlos Gonzalez were to get traded or injured). This may not be as likely, but, without the responsibilities of catching placed upon him, if Rosario can get 400+ plate appearances, he might be able to hit 30+ home runs as he nearly did in 2012.

The third best-case scenario would keep him in his role that he’s in now as a pinch-hitter. It’s not inconceivable that pinch-hitting Rosario could do what we saw him do in Milwaukee last week, hitting a game-winning extra-inning home run with (some kind of) regularity. The Rockies have had breakout pinch hitters in the past (Mark Sweeney, Jorge Piedra), and Rosario could be the next in line for a big year off the bench.

Worst-Case Scenario

The worst-case scenario is also multi-fold with Rosario. First, the Rockies could mess up a trade with him and get back, well, nothing. Rosario’s got power and hits for a decent average with a relatively low strikeout rate. Getting back a AAA ceiling player for him would be a bad haul.

Another scenario would involve Rosario having to catch again. If Hundley were to get injured, and Rosario would have to take over pitch-calling duties with some significance, that could be very detrimental to a pitching staff that already this young season has benefitted immensely from Hundley’s arrival.

And, third, Rosario could very well flop as a pinch-hitter. It’s a tough gig not getting regular at-bats, and it’s even tougher sitting on the bench for three hours and then having to face a team’s best reliever. Opening week home run heroics aside, it’s likely enough that Rosario could fail to stick as a pinch-hitter, and in turn, see his trade value flop through the basement.

Crystal Ball

I’m very pessimistic about Rosario’s impact in Denver this year, as I’ve written here and here. I think he’ll very well fall on his face as a pinch hitter – not because he’s a bad dude or a bad player (he’s neither), but because pinch hitting is really, really difficult and I’m skeptical he can make the adjustment after being a mostly-everyday player for his entire professional career.

I’m also skeptical of him at first base or right field, considering he was a poor defensive catcher to begin with and hasn’t had the opportunities to play either position in any significant way his entire professional career.

If I were the GM (and/or, if I had been the editor of Rox Pile six months ago), I would’ve campaigned to trade the guy this winter. His value only decreases stuck on the bench in a tough pinch-hitting gig where his bat can go cold for weeks on end. Ship him out while the gettin’s good, because Rockies fans will be disappointed with him by July.

Give us your predictions!

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