Colorado Rockies 2015 Crystal Ball: Charlie Blackmon

Apr 30, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

As the season gets underway, RoxPile.com is making some fun (but completely unqualified!) predictions about how members of the Colorado Rockies will fare this summer. In this edition: Charlie Blackmon.

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Charlie Blackmon enjoyed a breakout with the Colorado Rockies in 2014, and it earned him not only the everyday job in centerfield, but also an All-Star Game appearance.

Blackmon slashed .288/.335/.440 with 27 doubles, 19 home runs, and 28 stolen bases in 2014, but it’s important to look deeper at his stats. He slashed .374/.418/.616 in an insane March/April start, and then regressed significantly – only hitting higher than .261 in two months past that (he hit .286 in September, and .315 in July).

Now, we’ll see if Blackmon’s breakout of 2014 translates into a consistent producer in 2015, or if he’ll regress some as the league catches up to him and prevents an early-season explosion like he had last summer.

What The Numbers Say

FanGraphs lists various projection systems, which you can learn more about here.

All projection systems count on Blackmon to regress a bit from his 2014 numbers, with Steamer being the biggest pessimist, believing he will slash just .274/.320/.420 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Considering his red-hot start and eventual fade last summer, that’s probably a safe bet.

All projections also believe he’ll play between 134 and 144 games, which would mean he’d be a mostly-everyday outfielder, but appear in 10-20 fewer games than he did in 2014.

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Best-Case Scenario

For Blackmon, in this lineup, the best-case scenario is similar to that of DJ LeMahieu; all Blackmon needs to do is set the table, get on base consistently, and be healthy and decent enough in the lead-off spot.

Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Corey Dickerson, Justin Morneau and Nolan Arenado can all do the rest to bring him home if he can only get on base.

If he can raise his on-base percentage to .345 or .350, or higher, he’ll wreak havoc on teams by stealing bases and scoring runs.

Plus, he’s got power to boot; a best-case scenario might see him cross the 20-home run threshold, while stealing 30 bases this year.

Worst-Case Scenario

Blackmon’s worst-case scenario has been seen in the very, very small sample in Milwaukee the first two days: failing to get on base. In hist first ten plate appearances, he’s only got one hit and one walk, compared to four strikeouts.

Sure, ten plate appearances doesn’t mean anything – everybody on the roster will go through ten straight bad plate appearances (and probably more) – but it’s a window into what can’t happen over a sustained stretch with Blackmon this summer.

Thus far, the Rockies have been able to set the table without much help from their leadoff hitter; however, any on-base percentage approaching .300, across the whole year, would be a worst-case scenario for Blackmon and the club.

Crystal Ball

Blackmon is the first guy I’m going to be cautious on, after being bullish on Hawkins, Hundley, Tulo, CarGo, JDLR, and LeMahieu. I think it’s feasible to see Blackmon regress fairly significantly from his 2014 work, and it’s a pretty safe bet that he won’t be an All Star in 2015, either.

Most concerning is how pedestrian his numbers were after his hot April start in 2014 (except for a nice July). He won’t hit .245/.291/.363 this summer, like he did in August 2014, but he also won’t be the player you saw last April, either.

He represents a better everyday option in center than both Drew Stubbs and Brandon Barnes. And I think you’ll see him lead off in the lion’s share of games again this year, benefitting from hitting in front of Tulo and CarGo. But he won’t be quite the same player he was in 2014.

Give us your predictions!

Comment below, find us on Facebook, or tweet us @RoxPileFS and let us know. You can also use the hashtag #RoxCrystalBall.

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