Having high hopes for Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin signed a one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Rockies to avoid arbitration this week.

Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin. Those are our guys.

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For my part, I am extra defensive when it comes to De La Rosa and Chacin. De La Rosa has long been one of my favorite members of the Rockies, especially because it feels like he and the franchise grew up together. Chacin has had two separate seasons where he was great, and he is still just 27 years old.

Ask me, and neither guy gets enough credit. As Tracy Ringolsby and so many other reasonable people have noted over the years, shouldn’t these pitchers get even more recognition for pitching well at Coors Field? If every hitter is going to have his accomplishments diminished because of the altitude, shouldn’t stud pitchers be getting even more credit?

All of that is the background. Those are just some of the reasons that we are all so fond of De La Rosa and Chacin. But in the case of Chacin, what can the Rockies really expect from him in 2015?

There is certainly no problem to be found with the one-year deal that Chacin signed this week to avoid arbitration: $5.5 million (as reported by MLB.com) is reasonable if Chacin struggles with consistency and an absolute steal if he eventually returns to top form.

So what stands in the way of Chacin being that guy? As things stand now, it seems clear that the Rockies are building their starting rotation around the expectation that they can count on Chacin and De La Rosa at the top. For Chacin, is it just about health? Or should we have other concerns about him next season?

Since he became a full-time big league pitcher in 2010, Chacin has been great when he’s been healthy. Going year by year, it is not hard to identify the seasons that were lampooned by injury (numbers from FanGraphs):

2010: 21 starts, 137.1 innings, 3.28 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 2.26 K/BB, 3.1 fWAR
2011: 31 starts, 194 innings, 3.62 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 1.72 K/BB, 2.6 fWAR
2012: 14 starts, 69 innings, 4.43 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 1.41 K/BB, 0.6 fWAR
2013: 31 starts, 197.1 innings, 3.47 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 2.07 K/BB, 4.4 fWAR
2014: 11 starts, 63.1 innings, 5.40 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 1.50 K/BB, 0.4 fWAR

A couple things seem clear: Chacin has consistently been outstanding when he has stayed healthy. He has also struggled to stay healthy, making it a little bit scary to rely on him as a top-of-the-rotation guy.

Should we just buy into the “every other year” trend that has emerged? That would be silly, probably, but that doesn’t mean I’m not thinking about it. Realistically, the hope would be that the decision to shut Chacin’s 2014 campaign down will be enough that he can put together a mostly healthy 2015 season.

The key will be patience. It might be that the first month of Chacin’s 2015 season is filled with questions, with concerned articles on sites like this one: “What’s wrong with Jhoulys Chacin?”

It might take some time for Chacin to regain his form. Hopefully he does, and hopefully we are lauding him once again come the middle of the summer. Goodness knows that is the scenario that the Rockies are counting on.

Next: Are The Rockies Expecting Too Much From Jhoulys Chacin?

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