Keith Law, dinner is served. It’s time for you to eat a nice three-course meal of crow, shoe, and Rocky Mountain Oysters. During the weekend sweep over the suddenly mighty Pirates the Rockies have already surpassed Law’s embarrassing prediction of only 53 wins for the 2013 season. I would say this is surprising, but I’m not sure it is. Even I, as something far from a baseball expert, predicted the Rockies at 77 wins — and they will get much closer to that than the dismal record Law predicted. Rockies fans everywhere could have given him better advice.
Now that we have that behind us, let’s continue to break down where the Rockies should end up come October 2013. Will there be games played in Denver in October? Yes. But they will be played across the street at Mile High Stadium — sorry! That being said the Rox have left quite a bit to be happy about in 2013, and with 43 games left on the schedule the Rockies can still make noise. If nothing else they can further cement the San Francisco Giants place in the NL West cellar and that always feels good.
Through 119 games the Rockies sit at a slightly disappointing 55-64, with a run differential of -22 runs. Using the Pythagorean Win estimate that I used before, the Rox should be sitting at 51 wins. This maybe indicates that the Rox got lucky in a few games, but a win is a win and we won’t be giving any back. Digging further into this season the Rockies have scored 4.28 R/g and have allowed 4.46 R/g, both at respectable levels even if the offense isn’t what it was expected to be.
Back in March I predicted the Rockies would score 4.9 R/g, so this is where they are lagging behind. Let’s just say that over the last month and a half of the season the Rockies pick it up a little bit and score 4.4R/g while their pitching holds steady. This would give them 75 wins after 162 games — that is right in line with my original estimate of 77 wins, and of course I made it that way by increasing their run output.
But I am not the only one who is optimistic about the Rockies’ last 43 games. The popular baseball stat site, FanGraphs, have the Rockies coming in at 76-86 after 162 games. See! I am not crazy!
Thankfully this season was not the catastrophe that Keith Law wished upon us. In fact it has been a pleasant season in many regards. From the rise of Nolan Arenado to the solid pitching of young guns Rex Brothers and Tyler Chatwood, it is easy for Rockies fans to be optimistic about the future at Coors Field. Then again, aren’t we always?