With the Rockies Rotation, You Never Really Know

The 2007 Colorado Rockies won the National League and reached the World Series for the first time in franchise history. The following pitchers started at least one game for the team that season: Josh Fogg, Jason Hirsh, Rodrigo Lopez, Mark Redman, Elmer Dessens, Denny Bautista, and Byung-Hyun Kim. With most names on that list it would be an unfair representation of the season to say they played significant parts in the team’s success. But this group does show us with relative certainty that the Rockies did not enter the season with a wealth of so-called “proven” starting pitchers. We thought the Rockies would remain irrelevant in 2007 because they did not have enough pitching.

We remember that a huge part of the team’s success that season was the emergence of Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales in the second half of the season. Forced up to the big show ahead of schedule, they both answered the call in meaningful games. I dare say they took a “quantum leap.” 

While it might be easy to criticize manager Jim Tracy when he says that the hopes of the pitching staff will rely on a couple pitchers making a quantum leap, as Woody Paige writes in his column this morning, we should not be so quick to dismiss the idea. The success of any given Rockies pitching staff, almost without fail, proves to be too fluid for any fan, expert, or writer to accurately predict. Let’s all remind ourselves once again that we were ready to throw a parade for the starting rotation just one short year ago.

The year we thought the team lacked pitching they reached the World Series. The year we thought they had the pitching to win the division they completed arguably the most disappointing season in franchise history.

Did anybody reading this think that the Arizona Diamondbacks would have four starting pitchers win 10 games last season? Did anybody think that the 2009 Colorado Rockies would have five?

The line between an established pitcher and a guy who needs to make a quantum leap might not be as clear to us as we think. So yes, a pitcher or two from the Rockies will have to surprise us this season. Will that actually happen? The initial answer might be this: it is at best wishful thinking and at worst flat-out wrong to think anybody from the 10 unproven candidates for the starting rotation will actually arrive as surprising impact players. And that very well might be the case.

The more nuanced prediction might be one that starts with a qualifier. Something like this: “You never really know, but it seems unlikely that this group of pitchers will be enough to contend.” Given the surprises of past teams, both pleasant and unpleasant, we would be wise to acknowledge the possibility that we actually have no idea what will happen, quantum leaps or otherwise.